Thursday, January 19, 2006

Kosovo's future: Independent thinking

From The Economist print edition
Jan 19th 2006

IF YOU were to assess the future of Kosovo only from the local media, you might think that megaphone diplomacy was all that was happening. Kosovo will be Serbian forever, trumpet Serbia's leaders. The province's Albanian majority retort that nothing less than full independence will do for Kosovo's 2m people, more than 90% of whom are ethnic Albanians. It seems an impasse.

Yet behind the megaphones, tough negotiation has already taken place—albeit not between Serbs and Albanians. Since the end of the Kosovo war in 1999, Serbia's southern province has been under the jurisdiction of the UN, which last November appointed Martti Ahtisaari, a former Finnish president, to start talks on Kosovo's future status. The Serbs and Kosovo Albanians have assembled negotiating teams that are due to meet for the first time next week in Vienna.

But much of the hard bargaining has already happened, among interested outside powers: Britain, France, America and Russia. Given these countries' foreign-policy differences, the degree of consensus on Kosovo is surprising. Even Russian diplomats, who insist publicly that they will back the Serbs, say the opposite in private. The four powers all agree that Kosovo should have “conditional independence”, code for full independence after a transitional period, but with certain safeguards for Kosovo's remaining Serbs.

The only dispute is over tactics. At present, all are pretending that the future of Kosovo is to be settled in Mr Ahtisaari's talks. But in private it is accepted that, since the two sides will never agree, the decisions will have to be taken for them. British diplomats argue that the sooner an explicit guarantee is given to the Kosovo Albanians that independence in some form is coming, the greater the concessions they will be ready to make to Kosovo's 100,000-odd remaining Serbs. The French are more cautious, fearing that going public too soon may mean that the Serbs refuse to engage in any talks at all.

If the outcome is already agreed, what is the point of Mr Ahtisaari's negotiations? The answer, in the words of one diplomat, is that they “are not about the status of Kosovo...[but about] negotiating the status of the Serbs in Kosovo.” The Serbian government may still insist that Kosovo belongs to Serbia under international law, but such a position needs outside backing if it is to be credible. Realising that Russia's support is uncertain, the Serbs appealed last month to France. The French replied that they would support Serbia's legitimate interests, but only if they were realistic—and keeping Kosovo was not that.

A disappointed Boris Tadic, Serbia's president, is now preparing a fallback position. If Kosovo's independence cannot be prevented, he is putting out feelers to see if Serbia can, at least, stop the Kosovo Albanians having their own army and, for the foreseeable future, a separate seat at the UN. The Serbs give warning that, if Kosovo is lost completely, radical nationalists may come to power. A recent poll showed support for the nationalists holding up better than for other parties.

Yet this threat may not be that worrying, either. What would happen if the nationalists were to take control? Not much, shrugs one diplomat. Serbia's choice is, he says, “Belarus or Brussels”—isolation or Europe. As with Hobson's choice, it is really no choice at all.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

I wonder what goes in the minds of Serbs when every day, every credible publication tells them that Kosovo is becoming (conditionally) independent.

Anonymous said...

"Maybe Serbia hopes they will produce some nukes so they can achieve their ambitions..."

Actually Serbia should be nuked. Who needs these insects?

- Skënderbeu Shqiptari

Anonymous said...

"Maybe Serbia hopes they will produce some nukes so they can achieve their ambitions..."

Actually Serbia should be nuked. Who needs these insects?

- Skënderbeu Shqiptari

Anonymous said...

Switzerland_Supports_Kosovo Independence

20 January 2006 | 16:50 | FOCUS News Agency



Vienn. Swiss Federal Councilor Micheline Calmy-Rey said that the problems in Kosovo represent a huge burden for the entire region, the Serbian B92 reports.
Calmy-Rey said that Kosovo cannot afford to owe anyone money with its current status, because it cannot offer any guarantees that the money will be returned, added that this includes all monetary outlets, including international financial institutions, which is why much of the population remains unemployed.
She reminded that Switzerland stated before the United Nations Security Council on May 27, 2005, that it supports the immediate beginning of the Kosovo status discussions, and that putting Kosovo back under the sovereignty of Serbia is unimaginable and unwanted.
“Because of this, Switzerland supports the formal independence of Kosovo and supports the fact that the UN, through its Special Envoy Martti Ahtisaari, is ready to begin the future status discussions.” Calmy-Rey said.

Anonymous said...

wait i have an even better one tht no albo was ever able to answer; can you even show me 1 albanian source from prior to teh 19th cent. that claims you are illirain? haha start looking you will never find one! hahahah

Anonymous said...

Put it well in your mind you fucking fucking nasty serbs: ALBANIA means ILLYRIA. This is our land, we have been here since the primitive age. the albanian language is based of the illyrian language. thats a fact of every book of the history of the world. Has been writen in every ancient items, statue, monuments founded in albania. WE ARE THE ILLYRIANS. Serbs you are sllavs or russians, you came in ballkan as a barbarians. Go back in russia, MOTHERFUCKERS. BALLKANS belongs to GREEKS and albanians. FUCK EVERY SERB ON THE PLANET EARTH!!!!!!!!!!!! from TAULANTI, ELBASAN (ALBANIA).

Anonymous said...

WE ALLMOST GOT MACEDONIA 6 YEARS AGO. SERBBS: YOU ARE THE NEXT! (ONE DAY) , , , ,from ALBANOMANIA!

Anonymous said...

Leo,

This is for Ivan

I am Muhaxhir from Bucinca a village that does not exist now, but used to somewhere near Nish. My oldest aunt (80 now) says that Serbs killed and expelled my ancestors about 120 ago. My great grandfather’s family was killed and he was brought to Kosova as a kid by some of his relatives.
------------
I understand you are taught there in Serbia things that glorify and make everything look like its Serbian. That does not mean that you are right. Actually is quite the opposite.
As for facts just look what you did in Bosnia, and Kosova lately. Its the same ideology repeating itsealf.