Wednesday, January 18, 2006

Here Comes Montenegro - The Wall Street Journal

By Janusz Bugajski
18 January 2006

(Copyright (c) 2006, Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)

It's decision-time in the Western Balkans. As the final status of Kosovo will be determined over the coming months, Serbia and Montenegro are approaching a formal divorce once the smaller of the remaining Yugoslav republics holds a referendum on independence in April.

International involvement is needed to help these three quasi-states resolve all this peacefully and successfully. Attempts to prevent democratic choices for national self-determination would exacerbate conflicts in the years ahead. The alternative to establishing legitimate states is growing nationalist resentments that will be increasingly directed against the EU, NATO and others on the ground in the Balkans.

Although the status of Kosovo took center stage last year with the appointment of former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari as the UN mediator, it is tempting but wrong to link this issue to Montenegro, the mountainous coastal republic of less than a million people, where no international mediation is necessary. Unlike Kosovo, Montenegro was a federal republic in the defunct Yugoslavia with the same right to independence as all countries emerging from this failed state, including Slovenia, now an EU and NATO member.

Montenegro postponed its independence vote three years ago after EU representatives pressured the government in Podgorica to temporarily sacrifice the republic's national aspirations in the hope of pacifying Serbia. But the Serbia-Montenegro Union has proved to be a dysfunctional and expensive arrangement that has worsened relations between the two capitals and slowed down their reform programs.

Some EU diplomats calculate that pressing Montenegro to annul its planned referendum on statehood will compensate Serbia for the loss of Kosovo. But manipulating the destiny of Montenegro will not assuage regional nationalisms. It is likely to further embolden radicals in Serbia and distract attention from the country's internal reforms. It will also generate resentment among the pro-European and pro-American portion of the Montenegrin population that supports independence. Although a narrow majority is in favor of statehood, opinion polls show this to be the most educated, reformist and entrepreneurial part of the population that sees Montenegro's future in the EU and NATO.

Montenegro's governing coalition, led by Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic, includes post-communist reformers, social democrats and representatives of the Albanian minority who seek to build a multi-ethnic state based on civic principles rather than ethno-national identity. However, the reform process has been stalled because of Montenegro's isolation from Western institutions and its continuing links with an even less reformed Serbia. Additionally, Belgrade has sought to discredit the independence movement by charging the Montenegrin authorities with criminal connections.

During the Milosevic era, Podgorica kept itself afloat by bypassing international sanctions on ex-Yugoslavia and building its own state institutions in opposition to Milosevic. Montenegro's independence will help to make the government more transparent and its aspirations to join the EU will enable it to meet the required international standards for good governance.

Montenegro's plan to hold a democratic referendum was legitimized by the EU when it established the current State Union. The arrangement stipulated that either republic had the right to hold an independence referendum after three years, and this period expires in February. The EU troika also acknowledged Montenegro's right to a plebiscite once the recommendations of the Venice Commission on voting principles were issued in December. Having validated its compliance with international standards, Podgorica is planning to announce the date of the referendum in the coming weeks.

Paradoxically, one of the longest existing states in the Balkans is poised to be one of the last to restore its independence. While the rest of the peninsula was under Ottoman control for almost 500 years, Montenegro preserved its sovereignty and its royal family was linked by marriage to almost every European monarchy. Serbia deposed the Montenegrin king when it gained control of Montenegro after World War I and manipulated the close ethnic affinity and common language of the two nations to claim that Montenegro was simply a province of Serbia.

Montenegrin officials point out that a reaffirmation of statehood will serve to improve relations with Serbia by removing fears of domination and assimilation. At the same time, borders will become increasingly redundant as both states move toward membership in Europe's institutions.

The greatest benefit to Serbia from casting off Kosovo and Montenegro will be its own independence, which has been thwarted by three failed Yugoslavias. Freed from incessant disputes with Podgorica and Pristina over state structures, administrative responsibilities and financial obligations, Belgrade will finally be in a position to build a strong Serbia, pursue more rigorous structural and economic reforms, and move forward on NATO and EU membership.

The surest path to international integration is through legitimate statehood. Only sovereign countries can enter NATO and the EU, not unstable entities, joint states or international dependencies. If the EU disqualifies any legitimate Balkan state from the European project, it will lose credibility and effectiveness as a democratic bloc. Delaying the status question would increase opportunities for cross-border criminal networks, encourage depopulation as locals escape to the richer EU countries and radicalize a younger generation with diminished prospects for employment. It would be less costly and less disruptive to accept three new countries that commit themselves to a process of Europeanization.

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Mr. Bugajski, director of the New European Democracies project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, is co-author with Ilona Teleki of the "Atlantic Bridges: America's New European Allies," forthcoming from Rowan and Littlefield.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

cvijus,

"Even if we become landlocked, why are you so happy about it? You're really opsessed by your hate and therefore you will never move on."

Look who's talking!
Listen mate get over it you're shrinking big time therefore during all the debates I've red in here you're using nonsense bullshit that you and your fellow country man Ivan calls them facts and arguments
Listen I was thinking since you guys are so clever and have some many based proofs and facts that you are posting here why don’t you go and represent you country Serbia in status talks over Kosova instead hunting Swiss or American representatives, I mean it makes sense according to your comments since you guys are that clever :)

Anonymous said...

cvijus,

"Even if we become landlocked, why are you so happy about it? You're really opsessed by your hate and therefore you will never move on."

Look who's talking!
Listen mate get over it you're shrinking big time therefore during all the debates I've red in here you're using nonsense bullshit that you and your fellow country man Ivan calls them facts and arguments
Listen I was thinking since you guys are so clever and have some many based proofs and facts that you are posting here why don’t you go and represent you country Serbia in status talks over Kosova instead hunting Swiss or American representatives, I mean it makes sense according to your comments since you guys are that clever :)

Anonymous said...

MARTINOVIC DIES

"Vesti" reported that on 6 September one Djordje Martinovic died peacefully in the village of Citluk, near Krusevac, at the age of 71. Many Serbs regard the former Kosova Serb farmer and Yugoslav army civilian employee as a martyr for the Serbian cause in Kosova, while many non-Serbs view him and his supporters as objects of ridicule.

The controversy stems from 1 May 1985, when Martinovic entered a hospital for treatment of wounds from a broken beer bottle in his anus. He claimed that he had been brutalized by ethnic Albanians, who wanted him and other Serbs to leave the province. He became an overnight national hero for many Serbs.

Subsequent investigations suggested, however, that he inflicted the wounds upon himself in an unsuccessful attempt at sexual self-gratification. Croats, Slovenes, and Albanians in particular turned the name Martinovic into an object of ridicule, and Slovene fans used it as a taunt against Serbian teams in soccer games.

Martinovic and his supporters subsequently tried in vain to justify his claim in the parliament and in court in order to win damages. The late former Yugoslav Interior Minister Stane Dolanc, who was Slovenian, told Ljubljana Television that police investigations showed that Martinovic's account of his injuries was a fabrication. Dolanc added: "Martinovic is the first Serbian samurai who committed hara-kiri."

Copyright © 2000. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036. http://www.rferl.org

Anonymous said...

Thats why Milosevic came?! He is very lucky he will die in prison and not in the hands of Albanians. He would get more than a broken bottle in his...but let`s talk about Montenegro. This is a very old slavic state, and certainly do not deserve to live under the shadow of Serbia. No one deserves to live under Serbian gouvernement, probably not even the serbs themselfs. If they do vote 4 independance they will escape onve and for ever, if not, let them be a serbian colony. Kosovo has not much to do in this story. Kosovo is already independent, thanks God. You know very well there is no way back. The choice for serbs is if they chose to be good neigbours and profit from economic relations or if they chose to isolate themselfes for another 50 years.

Anonymous said...

Ivan, you are so stupid. YOu didn't realize the irony. Djordje Martinovic was a cloun that showed teh bottle up his ass himself just to claim after that the Albanians did it. YOu know what, may be that's exactly what we should do with people llike him. But no we are civil people and do not do that shit. We make you guys do it to yourselves.

next time try to read the article carefully and understand the real meaning of it and the reason of being posted here. Be smart, though it is hard for you.

Anonymous said...

Cvijus and Ivan, if not the same guy.
I am impresed with your ability to deny everything that is against you and to twist everything so badly in order to make you guys look a little better. (I mean serbs and what they did to Croatia, Bosnia, Kosova and may be Slovenia) Don't you have some pride and integrity. If I was you I would shut up and llisten and at the same time apologise and work for peace.
That's it. shut up and listen.
YOu know what, It's not even worthy arguing with you. We have gone separate ways, you, serbs and us, Albanians. Once and for all.

Anonymous said...

"Subsequent investigations suggested, however, that Mr. Djordje Martinovic inflicted the wounds upon himself in an unsuccessful attempt of sexual self-gratification".


Remember the guy who was fucking himself with a broken beer bottle??
He was a seb from Kosova.
This is soooo funny.

Anonymous said...

as to why Montenegro's independence is significant for Kosovo please see:

kosovomythsandtruths.blogspot.com

i would add that if Serbia is landlocked, it will have to cooperate with either MOntenegro or Albania and Kosovo (or Bosnia and Croatia) to transport its goods to the sea. That's gonna make serbs realize that they actually need too cooperate with their neighbors if they wanna survive. thats gonna bring peace to the region ultimately :)

Cvijus and Ivan you guys have no clue!

Anonymous said...

Cvijus and Ivan,

It is absurd that you lap up Serb propaganda like starved dogs. Yet on the Martinovic story, suddenly it is not to believed. In other words, when Serb leaders spew anti-Albanian hate and bigotry, it is all true and accurate in your eyes. When multiple newspapers reveal this guy to be a fraud (not to mention a freak for sticking a bottle up his rear), suddenly, in your view, Serb leaders become propaganda machines. Right. At least one of you has referred to Albanian "conspiracy theories" to undermine facts presented by Albanians. Sounds to me like you are offering a pretty wild conspiracy theory yourselves here. And it's kind of sad.