Wednesday, July 20, 2005

Borut Grgic: Engage Europe now (Koha Ditore)

The following article by Borut Grgic, director of Ljubljana-based Institute for Strategic Studies appeared in yesterday’s edition of Koha Ditore. The original copy in English was provided by the newspaper.

“With the US back in the game, the Kosovar leadership may feel comfortable about its position just before the opening of the status talks. Many, it seems, are linking US political re-engagement with independence, drawing an equal sign between the two.

While Kosova’s independence is the most-likely end result, it is by no means a predetermined fact. Washington has been explicit in its support of having the negotiations start this fall, but has been careful so as not to endorse any end solution. While on his trip to the region, Nicholas Burns refused to even speculate. This means Pristina needs to prepare for a tough negotiation which it will conduct directly with Belgrade, and not through the US or the EU.

If the Kosovar side stumbles during the actual negotiations process – i.e. if they are outfoxed by Belgrade – independence may become unattainable. It will be difficult to get international support (even US support) for independence once the negotiations conclude.

Serbs are excellent negotiators, let’s not forget that. They have outsmarted the international community on a number of occasions, and Kosovars already have experience with them from Rambouillet. Above all, there is an urgent need for a united domestic front in Kosovo. It will be difficult to do the negotiations, and make some of the tough compromises if divided at home. In fact, Kosova would be better off stalling the beginning of talks until this unity on the domestic front is attained. The chief of UNMIK, Mr. Søren Jessen-Petersen, is right to urge a grand coalition ahead of negotiations.

Second, stacking all the chips behind the US is close to a tactical error. The US is important, but so is Europe. Kosova needs to do more to engage the various European capitals on the highest political level, and even more on the Track II (expert and academic) level. Many in key European capitals not only think Kosova’s independence is a bad idea, but outright oppose it. The argument one often hears when traversing through conferences on the Balkans organized in Europe is that Kosovo lacks the capacity to be an independent state. They fear that if independent, Kosovo will amount to a failed state.

While these are obviously remarks based on poor judgment and understanding, Europe is not entirely to blame. The success which the Kosovars have had in terms of wining US Congressional sympathy is partly due to a comprehensive lobbying and explaining strategy set forth by the Kosova Diaspora living in the US. Second, Washington has been the favorite destination for Kosovar political leaders for year now.

The same commitment is missing across Europe. It should not come as a surprise then that EU governments generally tend to be skeptical vis-à-vis Kosovo’s independence. More can and must be done by Pristina to establish a comprehensive Track II engagement in Europe.

Aside form the fact that the EU will be a main ‘supervisor’ of the final status talks, the US despite its most recent diplomatic push, is slowly disengaging from the region. While US commitments grow bigger elsewhere – like in the Middle East – Europe is assuming increasing responsibility for stability and transition in the Balkans. Explaining to the US legislators and the Pentagon why the US presence in the Balkans is still necessary is becoming increasingly difficult. So rather than struggling to keep a power that does not want to stay committed, Kosovar leadership should engage with the EU. It the latter dimension that is presently fully missing.

The task for Prime Minister Kosumi is thus two fold. One the one hand, he should work to forge a sense of national unity before the start of the negotiations in order to maximize Kosovo’s political power at the actual negotiating table. Second, he should network aggressively across Europe, starting with countries closest to the region. It is paramount for Europe to better understand Kosovo – not least also because of the present internal crisis which has made many in the EU hypersensitive (in a negative way) to the Balkans. Second, the Serbs have made sure that Europe has heard their side of the story. Belgrade intellectuals are regular guests at conferences, and Serbian politicians visit with their European counterparts frequently. As a result, European perceptions may be skewed come negotiations time.

Only the US matters strategy will not work for the Kosova Albanians. It is too simplistic in light of the complexities surrounding final status talks.”

28 comments:

Anonymous said...

He makes a good point. You only need to look back to history and see that the European argument "you're not ready yet to be independent" was used all the time in the colonies in Africa. It took the US and the poor countries of the world to adopt a resolution against this in the UN.
The current prime minister has been doing a somewhat better job in talking to the Balkan and some European states.

Anonymous said...

Kosovar politicans are failing the Kosovars. Extreme lack of experience, and political talent is and will hurt Kosovar interests. All parties with no exception should get together and show their patriotism by having one common goal, and one way of achieving it.

Grgic's comments about the neglected EU don't hold much ground. The only reason why Kosovars should engage the EU and ask them formally to assist could be for post-independence period.

You don't have to look far back to realize that the US' is the final word in everything.

Anonymous said...

I agree that he makes a good point. However, it all depends on Kosova and its people were Kosovas future is heading. The EU is not going to change its mind about Kosova no matter the arguments. They have way too many skeletons in their closet and since they consider Kosova a muslim country (see french newspapers) they dont want it in their midst unless its subjugated, if not by the Serbs than by the EU. Just as it was the case in Bosnia EU allowed if not helped the purge of muslims by the serbs. Also we must not forget that it was EU that put more than 50% of albanian population under the slavic and greek rule. Also I believe that huge support for the serbs by the germans is to create precedent. So they can start crying how they got the short end of the stick in WWII (see the argument that allies carried out many crimes against germans and how germans got expelled from Poland and other parts of Europe.Sudetten Germans). But in any case it all depends on the resilience of Kosova's leaders under intense international pressure. Since the Serbs are much better than Albanians in propaganda albanians must rely totally in stubborness. I know that the threats against Kosova made by Solana, Davis and company might seem overwhelming but every Kosovar leader must know that the people of Kosova are behind them and we shall never, never,never give up.

Anonymous said...

Excellent article. I agree with the previous poster that leadership is key. They need to be aware of who they are dealing with (remember Rambouillet), and that weakness in Kosovar leadership's ranks puts the future of Kosovo in a very precarious position.

There will be only one opportunity to have this kind of final status negotiations; we can only hope that Kosovar leadership will put their best foot forward.

Anonymous said...

To the gypsy calling himself greek:
So if you own Balkans how come you are sweating about Kosova or Macedonia?

Anonymous said...

Hey Greek Guy, why don't you take a chill pill and quit posting your ignorant hatred.

Anonymous said...

This Borut Grgic is very much right. I want to know from an Albanian. I live in US and I follow media and I have friends that works in the government. I dont know where your "support from US-will help us get independence" comes from ? US supports Kosovo as much as Bulgaria as much as Afghanistan as much as Serbia. The Serbian "bad state" is long gone (except Karadzic and Mladic who soon will be caught for sure). I read about "ready to invest in Serbia and Montenegro" weekly. BEFORE March 2004, US where I agree more into independence for Kosovo, but not now. There is a pretty strong lobby here though, but in the end I would absolutely not dare to put my dollars on independence even if you might be worth it. No way I would.

Anonymous said...

Previous poster, read the article again! The argument was not if the US support is on the bag or not, for that is assured, but if its enough withouth the EU. Most Kosovar politicians don't give a damn what Europe thinks.
Although they are guilty of not trying to win over Europe, in many ways the potential of such a relationship is slight as Europe is still looking for a backbone.

P.S. A great collage btw. I loved Rev. Al Sharpton's comment. Ride the donkey, yehaaa!

Anonymous said...

This guy got just about everything wrong. This is not because I dislike his opinion- It simply is wrong. EU doesn't have the balls to impose a solution to Kosovar Albanians. The US, on the other hand, does. The reason Serb leaders keep talking to EU is because their arguments won't fly in Washington. They visited Washington a couple of times, but didn't achieve too much.
I will tell you how this will work out:
Negotiations will be meditated by the EU leaders. They will talk talk and talk. Neither party will give in. EU will call on US for help (and to save its face- again they don't have balls to impose anything). US will ask- let me see what you have so far. They (US leaders) will find what the EU solution too complicated. The US will offer its own solutions with Europeans clapping their hands and claiming another European "success" story. And Serbs and Albanians? Serbs will continue barking (no fair solution will satisfy them) for decades to come claiming unfair treatment. They will dream about “justice". Kosovo will go through some tough times intially, but after a decade or so it wills stabilize. EU will continue celebrating her virtual "super power" status.
Oh, and what will I be doing? Anybody what a take a guess?

One more thing. Bajram Kosumi should not bother visiting very many EU capitals. I would recommend him only London and Berlin. He is been in Berlin already, so now London should be on the list. Going anywhere else within the EU would be a waste of taxpayers money. Of course he is always welcomed to Washington!

Anonymous said...

" The argument one often hears when traversing through conferences on the Balkans organized in Europe is that Kosovo lacks the capacity to be an independent state. They fear that if independent, Kosovo will amount to a failed state.

While these are obviously remarks based on poor judgment and understanding, " Actually, they are more obviously based on an understanding of economics, greography and politics which appears lacing in some quarters who agitate for Kosovan independence :

"You only need to look back to history and see that the European argument "you're not ready yet to be independent" was used all the time in the colonies in Africa."

Yes, and African colonies were granted independence - some faster some later. A marvellous success, which those same "fascist" Euro countries apparently do not want to repeat in Europe proper.

Anonymous said...

...so they seek an audience in the more tolerable facist states of Europe, where an ever increasing right-wing racist presence is felt ....

pretty brain dead, where do you find facist states of Europe?

Anonymous said...

Fascist is too strong a term...colony-tolerant is better.

Anonymous said...

If you're an Eastern European, or African or Asian you will certainly feel the fascism of Europe. This is a fact, just come and live here :)

Anonymous said...

(Blaku 11:56 pm)

1) "It is correct that the Serbians are excellent negotiators, however the writer neglected to mention that they specialize in deceit and fabrications."
----- Too bad this fact doesn't matter, because it has helped them get what they want in the past.

2) "...[O]ne must not forget the lessons of history, particularly the lesson of Israel. Despite international condemnation ... the Israeli state was recognized by the United States...[T]the recognition of the United States was real enough to force the United Nations to accept Israel."
-----I think you're drawing a strong parallel where there is a weak one at best. The Jewish lobby in the U.S. has IMMENSE and unparalleled influence. It is a different story with the Albanian lobby (they're good, but can't compete with the influence of the Jewish lobby).

3) "Europe does not fear that Kosova will amount to a failed state,[...] Rather, it dreads the reality of a powerful Albanian state in the Balkans, particularly due to the fact that Kosova is so rich with resources it may very well become a metropolis surpassing the wealth of any of its immediate peers."
--------Let's try not to get too far ahead of yourself. Albania's economy is one of the worst in the Balkans, not to mention Europe. Kosovo has no industry and a week market economy...and that is not only the result of the international presence there. I wouldn't start denigrating the major states of Europe before you get your own house in order. There is a very long way to go before countries should start fearing a "powerful Albanian state".

Anonymous said...

People here claim that Kosova today needs Serbia and can’t stand on its own. There is a naive assumption here that Serbia itself has contributed towards the economic development of Kosova, the poorest federal unit of former-Yugoslavia. In reality the massive aid sucked in by Yugoslavia was conditional on spending it towards the poorer regions of the country. Once this American aid stopped, the Serb economy itself failed, and nobody in Kosova was expecting help from Serbia either. The periods of international aid to Yugoslavia and periods of economic development (or should I say subsidized well-being) in Kosova run parallel.
Serbia directly has had no positive impact on Kosova’s economy since the occupation. With the Serb economy in shambles and about seven years of wars during the 90’s, all Kosova got was taxation to finance the Serb war-machine, looting of its public property, and misuse of its resources. So you can argue that independent we will be able to survive slightly better that in the past 100 years. If nothing at all, we’ll have nobody to blame for our misfortunes. One thing is certain, we won’t miss Serbia’s hand.

Anonymous said...

Stop using the name Kosova. There is (for now) nothing that is called like this in the world:

////Congressman against American quasi-embassy in "Kosova"

MESSAGE IS FROM CONGRESSMAN TRENT FRANKS

Dear Colleague:
Section 1019 of H.R. 2601 (authorizing appropriations for the Department of State) calls for a report describing the possibility of providing consular and visa services at the United States Office Pristina, Kosovo to the residents of Kosova (emphasis added).

The Franks Amendment removes Section 1019 from the bill for the following reasons:

1. The name of the province, in international use and official U.S. use, is "Kosovo" - not "Kosova". The term "Kosova" is a one-ethnicity based pronunciation of the name of the province. "Kosovo" is a term in international use and it should be used as such in public and official correspondence, as is the United States' official policy. It would be highly prejudicial for the U.S. Congress to refer to Kosovo as "Kosova", by which it would recognize and imply that the province is only Albanian, and would ignore the minority populations living there. Albanians would have the same objection to the U.S. Congress referring to Kosovo as Kosovo-Metohija.

2. In the hour of future negotiations between Belgrade, Pristina, and the international community on the status of Kosovo, that no one can predict, Congressional action of this nature will be perceived as one-sided and prejudicial. Further, giving authority to the Secretary of State to empower the U.S. Mission in Pristina to render U.S. visas would be a dangerous precedent to set because the United States cannot render visas without the consent of the host country in accordance with the Vienna Convention. Therefore, conducting such a "report" is to ignore Serbia's role entirely and sends the wrong message.

3. The U.S. Consulate in Montenegro does not issue visas, why should the "office" in Kosovo?

4. Notwithstanding the political issue, the U.S. State Department has very practical concerns. Essentially, the U.S. Mission in Pristina does not have the facilities to do this. It has repeatedly indicated that there is a very real security issue (i.e. bringing people through the compound to do visa/consular services without the proper facilities or security apparatus to protect everyone).

5. Residents of Kosovo are currently able to obtain U.S. visas by either going to the U.S. Embassy in Macedonia (an approximate two-hour bus ride) or in Belgrade, Serbia. Residents around the world, for example in China, Russia, and India, often have to travel hundreds, if not thousands, of miles to obtain a visa. The current situation in Kosovo is not prohibitive, and in light of the serious diplomatic issues present, a report is not necessary at this time and sends an improper message.

In a controversial and sensitive environment, this Congressional action is not a diplomatic or prudent one at this time. Before we offer de facto independence and embassy rights to the people of Kosovo, we should let the status talks proceed as agreed to by the entire international community.

Jorn, Denmark

Anonymous said...

By saying stop using the term Kosova, Jorn, are you denying me the right to express my self?

Anonymous said...

Jorn and others,

Who gives you the right to decide how the people of Kosovo/a should call their country?!!! Nor should you care what bill US Congress passes, especially when it doesn't represent nor concern you.
In one point I strongly agree with President Bush. Liberty is a gift of God to humaniy, who are you to deny it to me?
Kosova does't concern you at all and I suggest you use your time to more productive means. (Getting laid comes to mind.)

Anonymous said...

Very good points from the Mr. Grgic, the slovenian expert. Nevertheless he forgot to remind the kosovar politicians of the following points:

1. Ask God for Help and Forgivness

2. Get united for your historical cause

3. Prepare for an official referendum recognised by the UN and present the results to the various international actors

4. In case such referendum is not recognized by the UN, force them to do so, by presenting the results to the rest of the World and officially declare what the Kosovars decided for i.e. declare independence in the parliament and let the world know what you want (use democracy as it is there to be used)

5. After having undertake the first 4 steps mentioned above, pray again to God, this time for the success and let the US, EU, UN and the World decide.

Anonymous said...

because Got, already decided.

Anonymous said...

To the Danish shit-for-brains:

32. H.AMDT.485 to H.R.2601 An amendment numbered 34 printed in part B of House Report 109-175 which strikes section 1019 of the bill, relating to consular and visa services in Pristina, Kosova.
Sponsor: Rep Franks, Trent [AZ-2] (introduced 7/20/2005) Cosponsors (None)
Latest Major Action: 7/20/2005 House amendment not agreed to. Status: On agreeing to the Franks (AZ) amendment (A032) Failed by voice vote.

Anonymous said...

^^^^LMAO.

Anonymous said...

Man this guy from "Danimarka" sucks...

Anonymous said...

" regarding the now-known-to-be most ancient people of the Balkans, the Albanians."

Ahh, thats racist masturbation dude, and hardly correct. Despite the obvious langugaee differences, genetic studies (as opposed to nationalist rhetoric / "history") reveal there to be very minimal difference between Albanians, the Slavic Balkans nad the Greeks. All of one blood.

Anonymous said...

Am J Hum Genet. 2000 Dec;67(6):1376-81.

Y-chromosomal diversity in Europe is clinal and influenced primarily by geography, rather than by language.

The full article is in pdf http://vetinarilord.blogspot.com/2005/03/y-chromosomal-diversity-in-europe-is.html

The Genetic Chaos blog lists many many articles on similar subjects http://vetinarilord.blogspot.com/

Anonymous said...

... that was introductory reading :). Now the specifics :

Eur J Hum Genet. 2000 Jul;8(7):480-6. Maternal and paternal lineages in Albania

"No significant difference was observed between Albanians and most other Europeans, despite the fact that Albanians are clearly different from all other Indo-Europeans linguistically. We observe a general lack of genetic structure among Indo-European populations for both maternal and paternal polymorphisms, as well as low levels of correlation between linguistics and genetics ...."

Genetics : The Albanians and Serbs and Greeks are blood cousins. Live with it.

Anonymous said...

I haven't had the chance to read the article but according to you the study says "no significant differences were observed" . If you are a scientist you should know that there is a difference although not very significant.

The outcome of a study is very much dependent how biased you are in choosing your experimental strategy. Who are your subjects? Where do they reside? A population study is not always straightforward and involves a great number of variables. If that study was a bit more inclusive i.e. involve the Albanians from the Malesia region of Albania i am sure that the "no significant difference" would have been a significant one.

I would also like to add that Genetics or shall i say Molecular Biology is a black and white story teller. Therefore, most of the time the way that story is told very much dependent on a good experimental strategy, which in this case should be a representation of all Albanians from different regions.

Ragards,

Anonymous said...

To the "gentical dude"

Your' right, they are all Illyrian to begin with. But only the Albanians have retained the language and some of the customs.

While other nations in the Balkans have been influenced and changed by other languages, powers, usurpers...