Serbia: Spinning its Wheels - The International Crisis Group Report

V. CONCLUSION
Serbia's minority government appears stable, and it may
well last out its four-year mandate. This is in large part
due to the fact that the official coalition of DSS, G17+,
New Serbia (NS) and Serbian Movement of Renewal
(SPO) enjoys significant under-the-table support from
the Seselj (SRS) and Milosevic (SPS) parties.
Those parties, whose real leaders are both on trial before
the ICTY, enjoy the prerogatives of power with none of
the responsibilities. They realise that Kostunica's
political ideology is similar to theirs, that without their
active support his government would fall and that
following new elections, the opposition DS might well
be able to form a very different coalition and resume its
attempt to dismantle the ideological legacy of the
Milosevic era. They welcome or at least are satisfied
with G17+ efforts to reform the economy, while
Kostunica permits the old-line ideologues to retrench
and preach their values to the country.
This dichotomy in Serbia's political life means that
as long as G17+ is in the current government, the
international community can expect to see progress on
economic reforms. Nonetheless, in the absence of a
significant change of heart by the DSS and/or an effort to
bring the DS into the coalition, little will happen in terms
of reforming the fundamental manner in which Serbian
government and society function. Without continued
international pressure, including clear conditionality,
Serbia's reform forces are likely to find themselves
overmatched against the recidivist pressure that comes
from the nationalist parties. The result would be a Serbia
that gradually regains economic strength, while remaining
a source of potential instability in the region.
Belgrade/Brussels, 23 May 2005

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