Wednesday, May 17, 2006

Montenegro faces historic vote on independence

PODGORICA, Serbia-Montenegro, May 17, 2006 (AFP) -

The survival of the last vestige of old Yugoslavia will be put to the test this weekend when voters in the tiny republic of Montenegro vote on independence from its union with Serbia.

Out of former the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia's six states, Montenegro is the only one that remains allied to Serbia some 15 years since the bloody breakup of the country in the wars of the 1990s.

In Sunday's referendum, its voters will respond with a "Yes" or a "No" to the question: "Do you want Montenegro to be an independent state with full international and legal legitimacy?".

Under conditions set by the European Union, the referendum must pass by a threshold of 55 percent with a turnout of at least half of the mountainous Balkan republic's 485,000 registered voters.

Two recent surveys by major Montenegrin research agencies put the pro-independence bloc led by Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic slightly above that threshold with more than 56 percent of voters favoring secession.

But the pro-union camp led by the main opposition Socialist People's Party closely linked to Belgrade, believe they will prevail.

The European Union, actively involved in the process through its special envoy Miroslav Lajcak, recently declared campaigning as free and fair, and that the result should be accepted by both sides.

At least 1,000 foreign and more than 1,000 local observers are expected to monitor the vote.

"If observers say the process was within the boundaries of a democratic vote, Montenegro will be internationally recognised by all 25 EU member states within a couple of months," a western diplomat told AFP.

Backed by the European Union, the loose state union of Serbia-Montenegro was formed in March 2003 with joint foreign, defence and human rights ministries but separate economic systems, including customs services and currencies.

However, the union was considered inefficient from the very start as the accord allowed either side to organise an independence vote after three years of probation.

Already strained relations between Belgrade and Podgorica have gradually worsened ever since, with Djukanovic's government pushing for the referendum as soon as the period expired earlier this year.

Podgorica argues that it does not want to be dominated by Serbia, which has a population of almost eight million compared with Montenegro's 650,000.

It adds that its main goal of EU membership would come faster without Serbia, which is burdened by war crimes fugitives like Ratko Mladic and the unresolved status of its ethnic Albanian majority province of Kosovo.

"Our wish to renew independence is not anti-Serbian, but rather is motivated by a need to take over responsibility for our European future," Djukanovic told AFP in a recent interview.

But the pro-union bloc argues the two republics can move towards Europe together, citing strong historic and cultural links, a shared language and religion.

Serbia has so far refused to talk with Podgorica about the day after.

Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica has repeatedly said the preservation of the union would be "the best solution for both Serbia and Montenegro," and called Montenegro's citizens to support it.

"That way Serbia would have passage to the sea, while Montenegro would have access to the Danube," Kostunica told a recent pro-union meeting in Belgrade.

Also favoring the union are a majority of Serbian citizens and the Serbian Orthodox Church, whose Patriarch Pavle says the union was formed "over centuries with numerous sacrifices".

Montenegro's independence would consign to history Yugoslavia, following the independence of Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Macedonia in the early 1990s.

17 comments:

Mir said...

Great idea Montenegro. If you dont like your neighbor just split. Soon we will have an Independent Srpska Republika, Independent Sremska, Independent Sumadija, Independent Hrvtska, Independent Mitrovica, Independent Vojvodina etc... and maybe after that we can start redrawing the borders based off of cities (Independent Beograd, etc.)

People need to stop dividing themselves it only weakens the region as a whole. Montenegro has the absolute right to seperate but it seems to me that hatred is coming from this referendum, hatred that I dont remember being there before between Montenegrins and Serbians. Good luck in your future Montenegro.

ALBASOUL said...

Hey Mir,
Yugoslavia might have been a great country if it wasnt for serbian crazyness. And now its not starnge at all that is falling apart piece by piece. No one wants to become part of the serbian disgrace.

WARchild said...

You can't change your neighbhors, they are what they are. But by going seperate ways Montenegro will get to the EU faster while Serbia cleans up its closet. This move should be embraced by all democratic Serbs facing nationalism at home. It will show Serbia the way and entice it into the path of EU. In fact, when Serbia is ready, Montenegro will be a great ally for Serbia from within the club.

Put another way, would a K-Albanian choose a union with Albania or an Albania as an EU member?

Cvijus011 said...

We should also organize in Serbia a referendum for our independence. I'm sick and tired of these highlanders bitching for the last 6 years how they want to be independent. Nobody was preventing them, but they still stayed and nagged. Monday morning I will wake up and hopefully thank God that Serbia is regaining her independence after 88 years.

But also, I will wish to the Highlanders good luck with the albos. After some years it will be "told you so...".

heku said...

Mir reminds me a son of Minatori (Rock Group of Prishtina during the 80') titled: Pse shkove ti? (Why did you leave?)

It says, Kosova republik√ę, Kosova panvarsi (independent), Kosova Kontinent!!! Just to show how tired he's of that struggle.

heku said...

And I'll ad about neighbours that when you have contiguity contact with an other state, it's harder for keeping it cool. See Germany and France or the excellent relations between Venezuela and New Zealand.

DimTuc said...

At 6:37 AM, Cvijus011 said...
"Monday morning I will wake up and hopefully thank God that Serbia is regaining her independence after 88 years."

Good on you Cvijus. But actually I think the internationals will make you wait till at least the end of the year before Serbia, at the same time as Kosova, will be able to celebrate its complete independence from all these historical ghosts. Bring on independence for Serbia and Kosova! You can bth party at the same time. Oh, and I'm dead serious.

Dardania 2006 said...

Cvijus,

I always said, Indendence for Serbia...thx for seeing it..

Bg anon said...

Im strangely and happily surprised by most comments.

But dim tuc I wont party because Serbia gets or doesnt get independence. It would be any other day.

The real future is employment, education, health, functioning government or maybe most importantly economic growth to allow all of these things to improve.

Give me double digit economic growth for Serbia for 10 years and I'll party. On the other hand I would also take victory for SCG at the football championships. :)

Kristian said...

To: Everyone


The question is why are the internationals wanting the region to split up? (control maybe)

You think that there wasn't a hand in seeing FROY break up!

Ethnicities aside, this is what I see the future of the region being.

1) Everyone one will go their own ways.
2) they will try to make their economies work, but will fail.
3) they will become dependent on the west in all areas of the economy and socially
4) then there will be internal disorder for they will not have anyone to blame but themselves.

After this phase passes and ppl wise up.

1) Ppl will realize that their economies are dependent on each other in order to make the region viable.
2) natios will have better relations then they do now.
3) current hatreds will subside and prosperity will be in the hearts and minds of all the ppl in the region.
4) An economic bloc may be formed and may one day show the highest growth in all of europe.
5) generations will look at this period and say what the heck were we thinking and why did we follow as sheep.

In life there are highs and lows. Right now we are at a trough in the cycle of life. And will probably be in it for a while. Hopefully we will start moving upwards.

Remember life is short and we are all still learning. Lets see how this project will unfold. We will go our seperate ways but I think eventually we will reach out and give our hand to each other so that we all become stronger as a whole. We are in the same boat as of now, but eventually we will build a carrier as time goes by.

Peace and prosperity to all :)

As bg anon said when we start seing economic growth it will be hard to solve any of the problems we have no matter what side of the border we are in.

Dardania 2006 said...

Bg_anon u rule!

The future of Europe is in Eastern Europe...we have so much potential, just think how great it will be once we see there is no point in all this nationalistic crap.

Ron said...

I am really glad to see that there is still common sence left amongst us. Asuming bg anon is serbian gives me hope that there are serbians that can be open minded and have clearer vision for our future. We live and share this region part of Europe and must find ways of cooperation. Anything else simply doesn't work. it is already a proven fact.

NYoutlawyer said...

What is ceku doing in Croatia again? I'm sure the UN will look the other way on this too, just like his war crimes.

United Press International

Serbia police seize 59 pounds of heroin

SREMSKA MITROVICA, Serbia-Montenegro, May 18 (UPI) -- Serbia's police at the Croatian border have seized 59 pounds of heroin hidden in Swiss car driven by a 49-year-old Kosovo man.

A police officer in the western Serbian town of Sremska Mitrovica, said the heroin, wrapped in 51 packages, was stashed all over the car, the Belgrade radio-television reported Thursday.

The man, said to be from Pristina in Kosovo, will be kept in custody for 48 hours before criminal charges are filed and he is handed over to an investigating judge.

Serbia's police have seized a total of about 110 pounds of heroin in the past week at the Batrovci crossing point on the road leading from Serbia to Croatia.

DimTuc said...

Wow, except the NY bloke (dude, there's plenty of heroin in nyour country too), what a cool discussion today.

I'm voting Kristian for president and Bg Anon for vice-president of Kosova.

Kristian said...

To: Dimtuc


Thanks for the gesture, but since reality is serbs are the minority why not give them a shot of presidency and I'll take the lower post.

Most albanians will think I'm a herectic for saying that, but I really don't care. Its a gesture of good faith and good relations.

And to be honest I don't like giving speeches! :)



To: ny...

Seriously were you dreaming about that heroin and were upset that you didn't have it.

Common fact: Drivers or traffickers or smuglers are called mules. A mule is an individual that is paid to drive a car (example) from point A to point B. The person is paid a sum of money, which to the individual seems like a large sum, but incurs all the risk.

So they caught a mule that had balls bc he didn't want to make several trips. How many serbian mules have they caught at the border?

Both sides have quote unquote Mafia/gangs etc.. that traffic heroin day in and day out!

Your article doesn't show all police reports of those caught committing such a crime.

Peace and don't dream to much about the heroin, be thankful that it wasn't being sold in serbia, montenegro, kosovo/a, vojvodina, or macedonia! The balkans are only a corridor for trade.

DimTuc said...

Continuing my discussion with gujgli from tto far back so i bring it up forward:

"If some solutions proved good in the world, I don’t know why Albanians in Kosovo feel like they are some holy people and therefore they need one specific solution which never been implemented before in international relations. Of course, on Serbs expence."

Actually it is what Serbia is offering that is somewhat unusual. What the kosovars are demanding - independence - is a very old, well-worn demand by peoples that has been implemented far too many times to begin counting, actually it is the origin of most states in today's world. Sorry Gujgli, believe it or not I can appreciate the Serbian emotional reluctance to "let go" in this case, but since history has made it inevitable, I don't think the legalistic arguments carry much weight in this discussion.

"You’re now trying to input that
Albanians from KaM and Albania are not the same in terms of nation."

Not exactly what I was saying, don't get carried away, but the analogy of germany and Austria is close to perfect.

"That’s imposible to defend, your every neighbour look at you as Albanians not ‘Kosovars’, whole world look at you in the same way and I don’t really see how can you make comparations with Germans and Austrians who have indeed some joint ancestors but in no way are same nation like you Albanians are."

Presumably you know the history of it. There was no united Germany, but about 20 or so states. One of them was Austria, one prussia, one saxony, one bavaria etc. Every one was just as much german as the next. It never occurred to anyone that Austria was less so. It just happened in the course of the 19th century that of the two most powerful of them, Austria and Prussia, the latter managed to unite the other German states under its rule rather than the former. The former was too bust ruling its Austro-Hungarian empire. That is not just "having some common ancestors". No doubt after 135 years, Austrians may well feel qyite different to Germans, but in origins the analogy is precise.

"You‘re giving examples of multi-ethnic countries, but I seriously doubt that KaM will
ever be multiethnic if it gains independence, as it showing right now with intolerance toward Serbs. It’s not even realistic to think that Serbs will live in so called ‘independent Kosova’. Maybe they will live on that territory but in no way they will recognize Albanian institutions or powers of such state."

I suppose because some of the discussion on this blog gets so partisan, to put it politely, you might assume that because I have a pro-indepndence position that I therefore also seek to prettify the present reality, seek to be apologist for Albanian intolerance and violence towards Serbs, but it should be obvious that that is not my view at all. I support indepndence, but I support independece for multi-ethnic Kosova, with full right of return and freedom of movement and security. If the Albanian leadership can't rise to the occasion, then Kosova will be partitoned, or if not, it will still get some kind of "independence" under internationalm occupation for years and years, and its leadership will be treated as pariahs. Fortunately, I'm not as pessimistic as you are that that is the only direction from here. I hope I'm right and you're not.

(me):“I vigorously condemn anyone throwing a bomb and I believe we have to create the conditions in which no-one will want to throw a bomb, and those conditions include independence.”

(G): "Is that quote from Ceku’s new guide ‘ Terrorist agenda in 10 lessons’? Say it freely, give us independence and not one person will be killed again, because that is the meaning. Throwing bombs when no one is insulting or endangering you and putting up your political goals behind it is by definition terrorism. Are you simply saying that if you don’t gain independence that you will increase terrorists actions? I don’t mean you, but your fellow Albanians? Is that indirect threat?"

No it is good that you don't mean me because I'm neither Albanian or Serb, just, let us say, Balkan. I'm not sure why you distorted my meanng like that. In explaining why some terrorist might want to throw a bomb, in saying there are certain conditions which create terrorism, which lead a tiny minority in some conflicts to engage in terrorist acts, is not in any way justifying it. No I am not saying that Ceku or other Albanian leaders are advocating throwing bombs and hiding behind that to demand independence. That would be foolish in any case, that goes against their quest at present, as shold be obvious. I am saying something entirely different. And I am not only talking about terrorist acts like throwing bombs. I am talking about the entire issue of the acceptance of the minority by the majority which just happens, whether you like it or not, to live all around them. Leaving aside bombings, if Albanians feel they have been cheated of what they regard to be their right - self-determination - and they have reason to believe that the minority helped cheat them of this, then I'm sure lives of the Serbs will not be comfortable. Do you really want to have a "Kosovo still part of the serbian motherland" to feel good about in Belgrade if the local Serbs in Kosovo are going to be even more hated by the Albanians as a result? Do you really think n that situation a lack of independence will assure security for the Serbs? Yeh I guess Serbs felt real secure in 1998.

"I’m frustrated that Serbs don’t have republic anymore in Croatia, but who cares?"

I guess that is called gambling all and losing all. Miloseivc/JNA expelled 250,000 Croats from one third of Croatia, including areas like east Slavonia with absolute Croat majority, and called it a Serb Republic in Croatia. 4 years later Tudjman reconquered those regions, particularly Krajina region with absolute serb majority, and expelled about 170,000 Serbs, and then a lot left later when he peacefully reintegrated East Slavonia. In both cases the actions were brutal. Is it actually possible that the Croatian serb leadership rejected Z-4? When you expel people you expect them to try to come back. In excahnge for losing the serb republic in Croatia, they got to keep the Serb Republic in Bosnia, covering half that country's territory. In exchange for regaining Krajina, Tudjman had to give up the Croat republic in Bosnia, which had been allied to the Serb Republic there against the multi-ethnic governemnt. 200,000 Serbs can't return to Croatia, and one reason is that many of their homes in Krajina are now occupied by 200,000 Croats expelled from Bosnia, especially the Posavina region in Republika Srpska, to where they can't return. Totally fucked up.

"Tell me precisely, what will be better and what can you do by yourself in independent KaM that you can’t do now with wide autonomy and NATO protection shield? Better investments, proud soccer team, better faculties? What precisely?"

You better ask the Albanians about that, not me, but I think it is pretty obvious that they long ago made up their minds. It is a question of what happened in modern history. We do not know if the serbian government had offered something similar to what it offers now back in 1981, or 1989, or even 1998, if the Albanians would have accepted. perhaps. A ot of things are perhaps. Perhaps there might even be some kind of rearranged Yugoslavia. But none of thhat happened, the opposite happened, and you have your "leaders" to thank for that.

"But we all know very well that your main goal is not some
miniature state like KaM which chances for survival are slim, your leaders and political elite throughout the history had only one goal, Greater Albania, Dardania or some bs like that."

Give it a rest. Whatever "main goals" once were it is pretty obvious that the "main goal" of every elite in Europe at present is EU membership, making all that rest of what you say here null and void.

"The fact that you find 2 countries that somehow fits your description fits the mine too, aside that one was seceded and second awarded both are among poorest states in the world. Eritrea maybe most poorest and still in civil war. I hope you don’t want same for your people are you?"

I mentioned Eritrea and Bangladesh, but I could have mentioned the majority of countries in Africa, Asia and latin America which all fought for their independence. For example, France conquered Vietnam in 1860s and the Vietnamese kicked their arse in 1954. The French didn't get it - they thought Vietnam, and Algeria etc, were not colonies but part of the "French Union". Serb has had control of Kosova for a shorter priod of time.

"I think that you must be aware that self determination process today includes military conflicts in all posible varieties, so if you are okey with 10 more local wars in your neighborhood that your wild choice, not mine..."

Ah, yeh, but the wars in this corner of the world have already been fought. Time for Serbia to forget that rhetoric and just get on with it. The irony of all this natinalist nonsense is that Serbia could actually be the strongest economy in the region and end up having a great deal of influence over all the economies of the southern Balkans, being the leader in fact, just not a leader in the way that nationalists and militarists prefer.

"I don’t care if you put it 100 times again i ignore bs about nazi serbs in Bosnia, not because i’m ignorant but because there is no such thing as nazi serbs in Bosnia."

Look Gujgli, I'm talking about leaders with ultra-right racist views who actually put their views into action in Bosnia, leaders like Karradzic and Seselj that invite Le Pen to Belgrade and Pale, and carry out a racist war of extermination against Bosnian Muslims, alongside blowing up about 1000 mosques, turning them into parking lots and then denying they were ever there, besieging cities and towns for years, purifying 70% of Bosnia of the wrong people so they could create a racist republic. OK, you are offended that I call them neo-Nazis because you think only amoing Serbs there can be no such political trend, you are a special people, so fair enough, for arguemtns sake, I will merely call them "fascists". Now can we restsart the discussion?

(me, last time): “The key is "ethnically purified". You say in RS 99% of serbs would vote for independence. You ignore that there has never been anything in Bosnia's 1000 year history called 'RS', it has no ethnic, geographic, historical, cultural or any other validity. 'RS' is merely the area that Karadzic and his fascists armed to the teeth by the dregs of the JNA cut out of Bosnia and expelled the non-Serb population. “

(your reply): "Alija Izetbegovic rejected Carrington-Cutileiro plan in 1992, way before it started to be really ugly."

A. That was not a reply but a different point

B. In the part of my post you quoted, you left out the crucial sentences. After "You say in RS 99% of serbs would vote for independence" I wrote something like, if all the non-Serbs that were expelled from this region now called RS were to return, you would hardly get 50% of a vote in a referendum on indepdnence." That was the point - there was no 'RS', this is just the result of genocide recognition. What should bbe the borders of your RS? Certainly not east Bosnia, I hope, the Drina Valley all along the serbian border, where the overwhelming majority were Muslim before the genocide?

c. As for your point about Izetbegovic rejecting the Lisbon Accord, that was the accord to partiton Bosnia, a multi-ethnic country wit a multi-ethnic government where a alrge propotion of the populaiton lived in mixed regions and even mixed apartment blocks and mixed families, into three ethnic-based territorial units. I call that an apartheid plan. I suggest the EU helped inspire the allied Serb and Croat chauvinists backed by Milosevic and Tudjman to start destroying Bosnia.

"So don’t post bs, but again to me, it’s funny how people see others actions but when it comes to them it’s simply goes like: pacific settlement of Albanians in KaM, long history of Albanian presence in KaM , Ceku as war hero with his honour soldiers and I (dimtuc) congratulate him for his democratic policy of slowly convincing Serbs to pack their bags and go on long vacation in Serbia."

You are usually one of the more intelligent posters, this kind of complete distortion suggests the influence of some of the ah ... environment quite common on the list. And you call what I wrote BS. Try to get back to responding to people's arguments, not to your make-believe about what they are saying.

"Sad that you don’t see own nazi’s between your Albanians but you got moral to lecture others. Shame on you, Jamie Shae. ;)"

Please don't call me Jamie Shea, king spin doctor, I have a very low opinion of him, and I've already made it clear, probably to the annoyance of most of the Albanians on the list, that i did not support NATO bombing, actually I saw it as a disaster for all involved, Serb and Albanian alike.

gujgli said...

dimtuc,

“Actually it is what Serbia is offering that is somewhat unusual. What the kosovars are demanding - independence - is a very old, well-worn demand by peoples that has been implemented far too many times to begin counting, actually it is the origin of most states in today's world. Sorry Gujgli, believe it or not I can appreciate the Serbian emotional reluctance to "let go" in this case, but since history has made it inevitable, I don't think the legalistic arguments carry much weight in this discussion.”

I don’t know how we can understand each other when we don’t accept basic principles. Legalistic facts are stronger then anything in international relations except brute force. If you think that current situation that in fact goes on Albanian side can be older then something that is declared by documents and facts then this is not helping at all. Serbia is ready for compromise, again i don’t know why Albanians are not. Maybe they feel like they’ll win it all, but I doubt it will happen.

”Presumably you know the history of it. There was no united Germany, but about 20 or so states. One of them was Austria, one prussia, one saxony, one bavaria etc. Every one was just as much german as the next. It never occurred to anyone that Austria was less so. It just happened in the course of the 19th century that of the two most powerful of them, Austria and Prussia, the latter managed to unite the other German states under its rule rather than the former. The former was too bust ruling its Austro-Hungarian empire. That is not just "having some common ancestors". No doubt after 135 years, Austrians may well feel qyite different to Germans, but in origins the analogy is precise. “

With that logic we can claim that all nations were in fact one nation in the beginning and therefore no space for conflicts at all. Why then Serb war with Bosnian Muslims when many of them were Serbs at some point in history, why then issues about Montenegro independence when all Montenegrins were in fact Serbs at some point in history etc. That simplified view of nation and someone’s right for independence I quite disagree. We can’t predict what the future will bring in 5 centuries ahead, but if Albanians from various areas of Balkan’s successfully stayed same those Albanians throughout their whole history i can’t really see how you can draq comparations with some Germans becoming Austrians along the way. Better prediction for Albanian issue, I gave you few lines below.

”I suppose because some of the discussion on this blog gets so partisan, to put it politely, you might assume that because I have a pro-indepndence position that I therefore also seek to prettify the present reality, seek to be apologist for Albanian intolerance and violence towards Serbs, but it should be obvious that that is not my view at all. I support indepndence, but I support independece for multi-ethnic Kosova, with full right of return and freedom of movement and security.“

You missed my point. I questioned any Albanian capability for multi-ethnic society because they proved they can’t do it until they abandon their Greater Albania project. With that in mind multi-ethnic society in KaM and point on multi ethnic, from my viewpoint is mission imposible except there is no Tom Cruise to save things at the end. What will happen is that we will have prolonged solution with status like independence but with no recognition by UN. For us it’s important that not one Serb politician sign independence. Of course by force you can implement it, but then you will simply legalize our right to take it back eventually again.

”No it is good that you don't mean me because I'm neither Albanian or Serb, just, let us say, Balkan.”

Balkan? It would be nice to be more precise, but if you think that such detail would damage your standpoint then it’s fine with me.

“And I am not only talking about terrorist acts like throwing bombs. I am talking about the entire issue of the acceptance of the minority by the majority which just happens, whether you like it or not, to live all around them. “

Sorry to disappoint you but i’m living with friends (minorities) basically all my life with no problems at all. People I met by joint friends few years ago, were actually Albanians who didn’t have any kind of problems during all this years living in Belgrade even when the situation on KaM escalated. So, your guidance is not welcomed.

“Leaving aside bombings, if Albanians feel they have been cheated of what they regard to be their right - self-determination - and they have reason to believe that the minority helped cheat them of this, then I'm sure lives of the Serbs will not be comfortable. Do you really want to have a "Kosovo still part of the serbian motherland" to feel good about in Belgrade if the local Serbs in Kosovo are going to be even more hated by the Albanians as a result? Do you really think n that situation a lack of independence will assure security for the Serbs? Yeh I guess Serbs felt real secure in 1998.”

There you go again. Securing the survival and movement of all people in KaM especially Serbs can’t be put in connection with the status of KaM, it must be obligation for Albanian political leadership as their assignment on their road to democratic society whether it’s independent, autonomy or some other solution. At that point you must not fall in trap. In reality your point may be correct but then Albanians really don’t deserve to run anything by themselves. I stand on point that you as majority must provide a certain standards to minority without asking for anything as prize after achievement such goals.

Holding grenade behind your back while proclaiming democratic standards and demanding status of your will is simply terrorism and not one exeption i don’t allow here.

“I guess that is called gambling all and losing all. Miloseivc/JNA expelled 250,000 Croats from one third of Croatia, including areas like east Slavonia with absolute Croat majority, and called it a Serb Republic in Croatia. 4 years later Tudjman reconquered those regions, particularly Krajina region with absolute serb majority, and expelled about 170,000 Serbs, and then a lot left later when he peacefully reintegrated East Slavonia. In both cases the actions were brutal. Is it actually possible that the Croatian serb leadership rejected Z-4? When you expel people you expect them to try to come back. “

There is a saying in Serbia ‘It’s easy to be a general after the battle’. With this historic distance, of course that everyone with 50 and higher IQ would accept Z-4, but in that specific situation it was not such a ideal soution.

In my opinin Z-4 plan would be a taking_the_breath phase for Croats who never wanted a long term solution that would keep Serbs in Croatia. I hope you read some parts of Z-4, like demilitarisation of Serbs part, that would only lead to easy and faster military operation and nothing else. Military solution was only solution for Tudjman, as his surveilance transcripts showed, he didn’t intend to give Serbs any rights and unfortunatelly he had great US support (arms, logistics) in executing this plan. Taking into consideration that Serb Krajina couldn’t survive economicly with no industry at all and with such isolation from Croatia and lack of support from hesitant Milosevic didn’t give her much a chance.

”Give it a rest. Whatever "main goals" once were it is pretty obvious that the "main goal" of every elite in Europe at present is EU membership, making all that rest of what you say here null and void.”

What EU membership you talk about? People of France and Holland rejected the EU constitution, EU by majority is not willing to absorb new members, they refused to allow Romania and Bulgaria for one more year with no clear guarantees when is the D day, Serbia is 10 years away and you talk about KaM membership? Don’t you worry about Ceku’s road to EU because he don’t give a damn either. I can show you picture from Rugova’s press conference few years ago when he waved with Greater Albania flag and it’s not falsificate. And Rugova is like Gandi compared to jihad war criminals like Ceku and Haradinaj. Unfortunatelly there is some politicians in EU who believe Albanian goal is EU. If they really want EU, they could go faster with Serbia. But of course they got something else in mind. Same as they destroyed Macedonia, they want another state Kosovo, they got clear way for parts of Montenegro too, so now as independence of Montenegro is clear of course their dreams of Greater Albania is looking very good.

“I mentioned Eritrea and Bangladesh, but I could have mentioned the majority of countries in Africa, Asia and latin America which all fought for their independence. For example, France conquered Vietnam in 1860s and the Vietnamese kicked their arse in 1954.”

With that logic Serbs from KaM can also seek independence one day when eventually KaM gain independent status. Then Goran minority can also seek independence from such Serb miniature state and so on and so on. Your simplified view of international relations and laws that’s applying to it is very dangerous road that can’t bring stability anywhere in the world. Comparing colonial liberation with complex history of Serbs and Albanians relations on KaM and wider is totally out of place.

Look closely to Moldavia, Azerbaijan and similar examples around the world. Everyone is waiting for KaM solution and if it go independent that would be a clear sign for others as well which will trigger reaction from the other side and then you got bunch of new conflict areas with no clear future and stability.

“The irony of all this natinalist nonsense is that Serbia could actually be the strongest economy in the region and end up having a great deal of influence over all the economies of the southern Balkans, being the leader in fact, just not a leader in the way that nationalists and militarists prefer.”

Serbia can’t be any leader in Balkans without KaM,, we’re not Israel, so I hope we are clear on this.

But, that kind of talk remind me of Richard Holbrooke who also in a candy way trying to promote that trade, EU future and priviliged status for Serbia as long as allows KaM independence. I see there are bloggers here that supported it also, but I hope Serbs will never again accept that carrot and stick approach. Serbia simply can’t prosper without resolving properly status of Serbs in and out her borders, especially their and status of KaM accordingly.

”Look Gujgli, I'm talking about leaders with ultra-right racist views who actually put their views into action in Bosnia, leaders like Karradzic and Seselj that invite Le Pen to Belgrade and Pale, and carry out a racist war of extermination against Bosnian Muslims, alongside blowing up about 1000 mosques, turning them into parking lots and then denying they were ever there, besieging cities and towns for years, purifying 70% of Bosnia of the wrong people so they could create a racist republic.”

It’s very sad that you use without a blink such a one side approach. Why you ignoring fact that Muslim leadership in Bosnia tried to force Serbs to be loyal to independent Bosnia without recognition of any human rights nor the rights they deserved as 35% citizens of Bosnia? You didn’t see me saying Bosnian Muslims are fascists.. And it’s really nice how you saw burned mosques but didn’t see hundreds of burned orthodox churches. Very, very neutral, i hope when you talk about Sarajevo siege you have in mind one of the biggest massacres of Serbs in Bosnia, exactly in Sarajevo. Few days ago Sarajevo based newspaper Slobodna Bosna showed pictures and edit big text about that massacres. Not want to remember you that real violence in Bosnia started when Serb was killed on orthodox wedding, again in Sarajevo. So, if you don’t have facts spare me of that Serbs-racist-fascist-propaganda.

“ OK, you are offended that I call them neo-Nazis because you think only amoing Serbs there can be no such political trend, you are a special people, so fair enough, for arguemtns sake, I will merely call them "fascists". Now can we restsart the discussion?”

If you continue with such terms without any arguments to support it, then we can stop right now.

”B. In the part of my post you quoted, you left out the crucial sentences. After "You say in RS 99% of serbs would vote for independence" I wrote something like, if all the non-Serbs that were expelled from this region now called RS were to return, you would hardly get 50% of a vote in a referendum on indepdnence." That was the point - there was no 'RS', this is just the result of genocide recognition.”

I don’t have time now to write here essay about Bosnian history but even if you have little knowledge about it you must know that Bosnia was always mangled between Croats and Serbs with Bosnian Muslims somewhere in the middle. I agree that RS never existed, but Serb presence in that region last for many centuries in various forms of organized society so denying this is denying Bosnia as well. I hope you you’re not trying to go in that direction.

”c. As for your point about Izetbegovic rejecting the Lisbon Accord, that was the accord to partiton Bosnia, a multi-ethnic country wit a multi-ethnic government where a alrge propotion of the populaiton lived in mixed regions and even mixed apartment blocks and mixed families, into three ethnic-based territorial units. I call that an apartheid plan. I suggest the EU helped inspire the allied Serb and Croat chauvinists backed by Milosevic and Tudjman to start destroying Bosnia.”

I mentioned Carrington-Cuteleiero plan only to show you that Bosnian Muslims had their chance for peace but their leader declined it by direct order of Warren Zimmerman although they both knew very well that would lead to very ugly war.

All solutions were bad because of situation complexity but we can argue which one would bring more problems.

I don’t think that Carrington-Culeleiro plan is that bad to deserve that you call it apartheid plan because that plan would eventually bring to reality one state that could become later functional quite unlike todays monster state solution unseen in international politics plus let’s don’t forget 100 000 war victims who died as a direct result of that lack of compromise and rejection of CC plan.

“You are usually one of the more intelligent posters, this kind of complete distortion suggests the influence of some of the ah ... environment quite common on the list. And you call what I wrote BS. Try to get back to responding to people's arguments, not to your make-believe about what they are saying.”

I react bad only when your biased approach endangers argument and start to be really annoying.