Thursday, February 23, 2006

A milestone on Kosovo's road to independence -The Economist

Talks on the future of Kosovo began on Monday February 20th in Vienna. They are almost certain to lead to its independence. If that happens, Serbia may declare its former province "occupied territory"—a move that would probably end its bids to join NATO and the European Union


Get article background

FOR months, diplomats who deal with the issue of Kosovo have been suggesting, first in a circumspect way, recently more openly, that the talks beginning on Monday February 20th on the future of the province will lead to its independence. Their thinking was that with a little gentle persuasion, Serbia's leaders could begin to prepare their public of the final loss of their southern slab of land, which has been under the jurisdiction of the United Nations since NATO forces drove out Serbian ones in 1999. Finally, says a source close to the talks process, “the message is sinking in.”

However, things are not quite that straightforward. While Kosovo-watchers had hoped that Serbia's leaders would blame the loss of Kosovo on the policies of the regime of Slobodan Milosevic—who was tossed from power in 2000—and extreme nationalist parties such as the Serbian Radical Party, this is not happening. Indeed, the Radicals now seem to be setting the agenda for debate in Serbia.

More than 90% of Kosovo's 2m people are ethnic Albanians who have long demanded independence. In the wake of the Kosovo war, tens of thousands of Serbs and Roma fled Kosovo, which remains technically a part of Serbia. The 100,000 or so Serbs who remain live either in the north, in an area adjacent to Serbia proper, or in enclaves scattered across the province. It is they, above all, who fear for their future.

In November the UN appointed Martti Ahtisaari, a former Finnish president, to preside over talks on Kosovo’s future. Meeting in London at the end of January, the Contact Group, which represents the major powers that deal with the former Yugoslavia, issued a statement which, reading between the lines, made clear they had decided Kosovo would be independent but that strong safeguards needed to be put in place to protect its Serbs. Emissaries were then sent to the region to explain this.

Serbia's leaders responded angrily. The leader of the Radical Party said that he and Serbia's premier, Vojislav Kostunica, had decided that if Kosovo became independent against Serbia's wishes it should be declared “occupied territory”.

Under the terms of any settlement, NATO troops would remain in Kosovo. The European Union is also planning to play a big role. Thus, if Kosovo is “occupied territory”, they would presumably count as occupying powers, and it would thus no longer be realistic for Serbia to continue talks on joining both organisations. This would mean that Serbia, which has slowly been clawing its way back after years in isolation, would once more become the embittered pariah of Europe.

Only a few political heavyweights in Serbia, such as former foreign minister Goran Svilanovic, have dared to say that Kosovo will become independent at the end of the process that is beginning this week. For that he has been vilified as a traitor in parts of the press. More common have been reactions such as that of Aleksandar Simic, an adviser to the Serbian premier: “The Kosovo Albanians have to be aware that they will not receive independence from Serbia and that Serbia will retain the right to take back everything which it lost in an illegal manner.”

Such talk has been greeted with dismay by many in Serbia who think its leadership has not presented Serbs with all the options. Daniel Sunter, head of the Euro-Atlantic Initiative, a Belgrade think-tank, says there has been no serious debate in Serbia about what its people could expect if Kosovo was not given independence. Quite apart from the demographic issues that come with trying to live in peace with a young, growing and hostile Albanian population, Mr Sunter suggests that “it would take 500,000 [Serbian] soldiers to keep [Kosovo] under control.” Kosovo Albanians have consistently said that any renewal of the link to Belgrade would lead to a new war.

In the past, diplomats have predicted that Kosovo would gain some sort of “conditional independence”. In fact it is likely to have more freedom than this, and now the diplomats talk of “sovereignty with limitations” or “monitored independence”. NATO troops will remain behind, Kosovo may have a “gendarmerie” rather than an army (for the moment), and it may not get a seat at the UN immediately.

With independence in sight, Kosovo Albanian leaders are beginning to think of the future. The province is small and crowded, its resources are limited, unemployment is high and it suffers from a chronic energy shortage. The World Bank says that Kosovo needs some $1.2 billion of investment—substantially more than its entire annual budget—in a new power plant and coal mine alone. For Kosovo, a huge amount of work is needed, and many will see this week as the point at which it begins in earnest.

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

Pocelo je Pocelo.....ole ole oleoleole......

cao momci iz Srbije. vidite ipak bicemo mi dobre komsije, bolje je ovako vi vasu drzavu, mi nasu:)
zamislite vasa Srbija je ogromna imate dovoljno mesta....budite realni prihvatite i nas male i nastavicemo da zivimo normalo......

ako se ovi seljaci radikali glupiraju, ( oce da proglase okupaciju) nemojte ih slusati....jebiga sta sad opet da se naoruzavamo i zajebancije....bicemo u EU za par godina a posle toga svi idemo u Ulqin da se plickmo...mozda do tad vratice se i svabice:)


Plisi

Anonymous said...

Yea man it's over, they do their thing we do ours!
2 state solution, the best solution on earth!
We need to get our economy going though, we desperately need a western educate economist....the current one , Bujar Dugolli never took an economy class let alone graduate or teach economy!!!
Enough with these ministers who have no clue!!

next elections brothers and sisters we have to make sure to get people who know what they will be doing! I guess we Kosovars don't have someone like Radicals but we do have people in high profile positions without a good CV, simply put they are incapable to run out economy and country!

Anonymous said...

Actually, Bujar Dugolli is the Minister of Commerce and Industry.
Still, his major was philosophy???
Then he did his MA in History!!!
It is wierd he was appointed fur such a crucial ministry, he would have been a good
Culture minister perhaps but i don't see how he can
lead Commerce and Industry in the age of globalisation with his major!


Po shqiptari din gjithqka? mson aj menihere edhe e knaq krejt hehe

Anonymous said...

The main artery of Kosova. Prishtina-Shkup road has been closed for almost 2 months now. No one has resigned for failing to open up (clean from a landslide) the most important road in the country. Transport minister should be there with workers pushing for results, we 're loosing millions of Euros bc of stupid thing like this.

Anonymous said...

Anonimusit te pare ose Plisit,
te drejten me te kallxu spo me pelqen fakti jo qe po shkrun serbisht, po ne serbishten tonde po e verej mungesen e shoqnimit me Serb. As sme mungojn, as skom me shku me ta ne Ulqin po me mujt ni zid shume te madh e kisha bo rreth e perqark Serbise. Kosova ka me ec perpara e per ta ne p.t.s. Ishalla mshelen e desin krejt e bohen ma zi se Belorusia. Gjeneratat e reja te kosovareve jon shume ma te mire, me te meqem, ma te shetitum se cka ka Serbia. Me ta e kena kry nihere e pergjithmon. Edhe qeta serb qe i kena ne Kosove ja kena mi njek, ja kan me dek pi pleqnise. As ekonomikisht, as politikisht e as moralisht Serbija ska me qene atrakcion per neve mo. U kry. Tash e mas me shqiptaret tjeter duhet me u mundu me kriju ni treg qe mundet me na jep jete te mire, qetesi edhe force ne rajon, po jo me vra po me te jep stabilitet.
Qeshtu jaran, shkijet jon shku, ska mo.

Anonymous said...

Jaran,

ceshtja e forcave te sigurimit eshte teme ne veti. Une mendoj qe Serbia nuk ka me paraqit mo rrezik per Kosoven, keshtu qe edhe ceshtja a duhet sherbimet tona te mesojn serbisht duhet me u rishiku. Po kjo vendoset kur te shikohen rreziqet qe mundem me ju kanos Kosoves ne te ardhmen (disa prej tyne munen me kon te tipit katastrof naturore si ajo dje, ose ndonje element fundamentalist).

Sa i perket "ndjekjes" Serbe prej Kosoves. Nuk eshte qe shqiptaret kane me i ndjek, mirepo ne Kosoven e pavarur nuk ka vend per Serb per shume arsye. Nuk kane si me u integru, nuk e dine gjuhen, nuk jane te edukum, nuk ka pune ashtu kshtu per shqiptare e le me per serb, veshtire kane me pranu realitetin qe nuk jane zot te shtepise, dhe ne fund mosha (shumica e tyre jon ne penzione dhe nuk paraqesin force punetore). Dmth jam duka e cek nje skenar real se cka mund te ndodh.

ceshtja e te folurit te gjuhes se tyre nuk ka te bej me "rritjen e morrit" po ka te beje me zgjedhjet qe shqipetaret i kane per te ardhmen. Sa eshte gjuha Serbe aktuale ne bote sot. A mundet ajo gjuhe me i ndihmu nje shqipetari te Kosoves me depertu dika, me gjete pune ose me lexu libra ma te mire. Pergjigja eshte Jo. ne vend se mu lodh e me mesu nje gjuhe kot, gjeneratat e reja te shqipatareve po deshmojn qe jane ma te interesum me mesu nje gjuhe qe ju jep nje avantazh.

Per shitjen e mallrave nga ana jone Serbeve ka me qene pak veshtire. Kosova ende importon ma shume se sa exporton, e ketu hyn edhe mallrat nga Serbia. Prandaj, ma pare isha fokusu ne krijimin e nje tregu gjitheshqiptare per shitjen e mallerave, ne ate menyre e krijon nje treg prej 5 milion njerezve qe mundet me i perballu avantazhet qe disa produkte Serbe i kan ne tregun ton e en rajon.

Me te mira
I.

Anonymous said...

Zoteri, nuk duhet te ndihemi inferior nese e flasim gjuhen serbe. Ne vetem tregojme se mund te komunikojme edhe ne cirillicen e tyre. Por kjo nuk eshte ajo cka dua te them ne ket post. Eshte fakt se ne me serb na ndan nje kufi i gjate, poashtu kemi bashkombas tone ne luginen e Presheves, dhe interesi jone nacional eshte qe ta dime se si eshte fati i tyre. Poashtu ne cdo variante serbet e Kosoves do te mbetin ne Kosove keshtu qe edhe me ta do te duhet te punojme. Ne nuk guxojme te izolohem por ti
perdorim te gjitha mundesite qe ta zhvillojme Kosoven. Une shpesh i lexoj lajmet e tyre ne B92 dhe shume here ka me shume informata per Kosove se sa ne mediat tona. Ne gazeten Verecnje Novosti, keto dite eshte nje fejton qe shkruan per vitet e 60'ta ne Kosove. Ka shume informata fascinante, p.sh. se cka ndodhi mbas ramjes se Rankoviqit dhe ate se cka mendonte Tito;ja per Kosoven.

Anonymous said...

Natyrisht se forcat tona te sigurise duhet te flasin/kuptojne serbisht! Edhe nuk eshte vetem puna te pergjimi por edhe te ajo qe mos ti perserisim gabimet e tyre. Disa qe kerrkojne izolimin e Serbise dhe mur ata de-facto kerrkojne edhe izolimin e Kosoves. Ne per te shkuar ne Evrope duhet te marrim rrugen e veriut dhe s'ka qka te ndihemi inferiore. S'a i perket tregut, aj nuk duhet te jete ne baze nacionale, serbia vjen ka shiti mall me vlere 138 million euro, pra atyre nuk ju pengojne Eurot tona, per ate reciprociteti ne fushen e ekonomis eshte me rendesi.

Anonymous said...

Zoteri

nuki ka reciprocitet kur ti nuk ke cka me shit e ai te shet ty gjithqka qe ti e blen se nuk ke shiku diku tjeter ta blesh. Cka po flas une eshte qe nese veq na duhet me ble atehere ndoshta ma mire eshte me ndihmu bujkun e shqiperise, maqedonis lindore, etj. Dmth vareshmerija ekonomike duhet te nderpritet me Serbine.

Ende nuk po e kuptoj mendimin pse forcat tona duhet te flasim Serbisht. Pse mos te dine focat tona anglishten, e te jene force mobile qe neser te dislokohen kudo e jo vetem te mendojm per kufirin me Serbine. Po me duket qe ka te beje me mendimin e vjeter qe duhet te dihet medoemos serbishtja se ashtu e kemi mesuar ose pse ata na kanosen me ndonje rrezik prap. Duhet te mendohet per te ardhmen. Forcat e Kosoves duhet me qene forca moderne. POashtu mendimin qe e vetmja rruge ne veri qon ka Serbia eshte pak i egzagjeruar. fakt eshte qe momentalisht ajo rruge te shpije ne veri mirepo keto gjera ndryshojn. Rruget ndertohen edhe ne direkcione tjera.

Anonymous said...

Per qdo njeri qe ka vrejtje per me mesue sebishten e kam vetem nje gje te ju them. Sunt Cu kishte thene " Nese e njeh vetveten edhe armikun ke me fitu qdo lufte, nese e njeh vetveten e jo armikun ke me fitue vetem 50% te lufterave, e nese nuk e njeh vetveten e nuk e njeh edhe armikun ke me humb qdo here". Une jam i bindun se 90 per qind te shypeve nuk e njohin vetveten e le me armikun. Studione njeher vetveten e masandej fol per fitore apo diqka tjeter. Ju vetem shikone faktin se ma shume mashkuj e braktisen Kosoven gjate luftes se sa femra. Shypja u mundojke me hy ne dimi te grave vetem me shpetue bothen e vet. E ne internet eshte lehte me kan trime e me fole sikur Azem Bejta. Shiko njehere faktin se me shume shkojne Kosovaretn ne Ulqin se sa ne Durres.
E pastaj ke keta te UCK qe ata mbajne monpolin mbi luften ne Kosove e ithojne Rugoves se ai nuk e ka monopolin mbi pavaresin. Por prape qdo shtet e nacionalitet ka berllog e edhe na kemi sa te duesh.

Anonymous said...

Zoteri

nese je i njejti prej me pare atehere nuk mundesh prej bashkepunimit ekononomi, edhe prej llafeve "ekonomia nuk ka nacionalitet" ne Sun Tzu. Nuk shkon si mendim.

Na po folim per te ardhmen. Ndoshta plot mashkuj shqiptare jane friku e kane ik gjate luftes, ndoshta edhe femrat kane qene me trime per ate edhe e meritojm cdo lavdate, mirepo kjo teme nuk pate te bej me luften e kalume po cka te bejme qe disa gabime qe i kemi bere mos ti perserim po ta ndertojm nje shtet ma te mire e ma funkcional. Askush ketu nuk po tregohet Azem Bejte, sot nuk ka nevoj Kosova per Azem Bejta, po ka nevoj qe te jemi funkcionalista, qe te dime si ta bejm shtetin ma mire dhe ma te fort se paku ekonomikisht.

Kjo bisede filloj me gjuhen serbe edhe a duhet ta dim ate gjuhe ne te ardhmen a jo. Puna e nacionalizmit edhe fyerjet personale tentum ti leme anash e ta bejme nje bisede frytedhenese. Urdhero e jep argumente qe pine uj e qe sipas teje ta dime gjuhen serbe i sjell Kosoves prosperitet.

Anonymous said...

duhet ta njohim vehten e vertete....dhe vete rastet e bllokimit rruges kryesore te ks qe 2 muaj, fakti qe nuk u kujdesem qe mos te ndodh vershimi i termocentralit tregon per inkompencen e instucineve tona....poashtu fakti se qe 2 muaj nuk zgjodhem ministra te brenshem dhe te drejtesise eshte indikate per mengesite tona.....

Anonymous said...

une nuk e kam fjalen vem te forcat e sigurise....por edhe 'intelegjensa' jone duhet ti percjell zhvilimet e veriut. EHe nuk eshte ajo vem gjuhe serbe....e flasinn ne nje variacion edhe kroatet, boshnjaket malazezet. POashtu edhe sllovent e maqedonasit e perdorin...pra jemi te rrrethuar me ta dhe eshte ne rendesi strategjike te kkomunikojme

Anonymous said...

Pajtona plotesisht qe duhet mi adresu mangesite ne shoqerine tone. Mirepo asgje nuk ka pengon me shiku si mundemi ma mire mi bo gjerat ne te ardhmen. Poashtu pajtona qe lidership aktual eshte i dobet edhe nuk mundet me qu Kosoven perpara. Mirepo, gjerat ndryshojn, duhet me shpresu se do ta kemi nje dite udheheqesine ma te mire. Po deri atehere mund ti bisedojm gjerat. Vetem nje bisede mire e argumentuar mundet me vendos ne tavolin opcione se di do te duket Kosova e nesermen.

pershendetje

Anonymous said...

Dugolli eshte nje nder personat ma te korruptum ne Kosove.

Anonymous said...

Jane shume anonymusa qe lajmerohen kto po sidoqofte debati ka qene konstruktiv:)


por ne thelb te debatit me duket se qendron pyetja
" a eshte ma e rendesishme me e dasht vendin e vehte apo me e urrejt armikun" ktu me duket qendron edhe dallimi ne mes te patriotizmit dhe nacionalizmit-shovenizmit. Nese per cdo gje i fajsojme serbet e nuk i shohim edhe kurojme mangesite tona, na vetem se e rrejme veten. Sikur qe tha njeri, me fitimin e pavarsise shkijet kan me ik nga Kosova!...ok ne rregull qe nese hipotetikisht edhe ajo ndodh a do te thoqe qe ne ate rast rruga Shkup- Prishtine do te ishte debllokuar mbrenda 3 diteve, qe TMK-ja e kish mbrojte termcentralin nga vershimi, qe populli i Kosoves ti paguaj faturat e KEK-ut, qe qeveria do i kishte zgjedh ministrat me rendesi per vend,mbas nje jave e jo gati 3 muajve, qe ne poste do te zgjedhim njerez profesionist e jo njerez me "cels" partiak?!

Te citoj nje analist i cili para disa ditevetha "nese per 2 ministra na nevojiten 3muaj, sa kohe do te na nevojitet ti zgjedhim 50 ambasadore"....

Anonymous said...

Plisi,

To bato, upravu si. Ovo nam treba, da se svi slazemo, da se sve sredi ove godine, i onda svi da najzad cepamo. Mogu iskreno da kazem da sam odusevljen da mogu ovako sa tobom da pricam, i svaka ti cast za to. Smradikalci mogu da puse kurac :P, i trebali smo da zabranimo to partiju da bude u nas parlament i da nas bruka!!!

To other Albanian people here, i was just saying to Plisi, the first poster here, that i really like what he has said, and that this is the only way into the future here!!

Darko Petrovic