BELGRADE, June 15 (Reuters) - Shattered buildings on the boulevard tell the story: Belgrade is the only European capital bombed by NATO and Serbia does not forget it.
The cruise-missile ruins on "Tomahawk Alley" are totems of resentment of a people who feel misunderstood and abused by the powerful Westerners who ought to be their friends.
Seven years after NATO dropped its last bomb to drive Serb forces out of Kosovo, the Serbs still feel battered -- by rebukes, ultimatums and penalties from Brussels and Washington, by humiliating visa restrictions, by the sting of exclusion.
This feeling of "more stick than carrot" benefits hardline nationalists who tell Serbia the West never did love it and never will, says analyst Dejan Vuk Stankovic.
Setbacks and dashed hopes are part of the daily news diet here but the past six weeks were exceptional even by Serbian standards, and the latest party poll ratings reflect that.
On May 3, the European Union froze pre-membership talks with Serbia because it failed to hand over top war crimes fugitive Ratko Mladic, a Bosnian Serb, to the U.N. tribunal in The Hague.
On May 21, Serbia's partner Montenegro chose independence, saying the EU freeze proved it would be better off without Serbia and its odious legacy as instigator of the Yugoslav wars.
On June 9, a poll gave the opposition Radical Party over 40 percent voter support. Radicals worship Mladic, back revanchist aims, hate Western interference and despise liberals.
WRONG TIMING
"The Montenegro referendum ... has increased Serbia's anger at the international community and its feeling of isolation," former U.S. ambassador William Montgomery wrote this week.
It made Serbs "less cooperative, more negative and more aggressive" at the very time the West needs their cooperation on Kosovo, whose 90 percent ethnic Albanian majority is expected to get independence this year with or without Serb approval.
A Western-inspired U.N. vote to amputate Serbia's cherished southern province could be exploited by anti-Western parties to whip up national outrage, with unpredictable consequences.
The U.S. and EU do not want Serbia reverting to chauvinism. They want it embedded in the West, not on the ropes, or at bay, or off the reservation in a region known for radical solutions.
Europe's worst wars since 1945 started here, just 15 years ago. Fighting in Bosnia and Croatia went on until 1995. In 1998-99 it raged again in Kosovo. Then it flared next door in Macedonia in 2000. The overall toll was 200,000 dead.
Serb analysts say Kosovo independence would further crank up support for the Radicals, raising the possibility of a hardline government in Belgrade if, as some predict, a snap election later this year unseats Serbia's fractious minority coalition.
The U.N. and NATO are braced for the possible exodus of 50,000 Serbs from Kosovo if the Albanians get independence, and for unrest in the Serb-dominated north which favours partition. But there is no known plan for a lurch back to defiance in Belgrade -- an issue to be discussed at this week's EU summit.
To complicate the picture in the wake of Montenegro's independence, Serbs in Bosnia sounded an alarm in the West this month by insisting they too have a right to vote for secession.
A breakaway movement in either place, egged on by a hardline Serbia, could scupper hopes of a peaceful solution in Kosovo.
WEAKENING RESTRAINT, RISING RESENTMENT
No one expects all-out war to return to the Balkans, because people are in no mood for it, and war does not mix with hopes of a more prosperous future via EU and NATO membership.
But if hopes are scotched by a new isolationism, restraint could weaken as resentment of the West rises. Without official restraint the Balkans is known to breed violence.
Many Serbs firmly believe they are being bullied into betraying national interests and should tell the West where to go. The question is whether this sentiment will predominate.
NATO bombed for 78 days in 1999 to make Slobodan Milosevic pull his troops out of Kosovo. Seven years ago this week the army withdrew, bristling with brassy bandoliers and defiance.
Despite reconciliation, the defiance still smoulders, sustained by a lingering Serb sense of exceptionalism.
Serbia had to be threatened with sanctions before seeing the West was serious about surrendering suspects to The Hague to stand trial for the worst atrocities of the late 20th century.
It still refuses to admit the reality that Kosovo Albanians will never again entrust their fate to the state that killed 10,000 of them in two years, and drove out nearly a million.
Most Serbs have not seen Kosovo, yet insist it is their inalienable cultural and religious "Jerusalem". In the words of one analyst Serbia "wants the land but not the people on it".
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3 comments:
anyc with respect but who are you to talk?
How many people in Kosovo have access to the internet? What gives you the right to talk on the behalf of the mass of Kosovo Albanians behalf either?
Kristian has just as much a right to an opinion as you or I do. It isnt where one lives which is important, its ones opinions on the things that matter.
So if Kristian has it wrong say so but dont question where he lives or put the 'silver spoon' question to yourself as well.
anyc you exaggerate so much. Why is it so necessary for you to exaggerate that badly?
Yes there are chauvanistic views among Serbs about Albanians, thats not something that can be seriously denied. But to claim that since the dawn of Serbia it has used every means at its disposal to erradicate Albanians is fantasy.
Why do you think that Albanians are so important that they any other people would be so obsessed? Albanians like the Serbs are a relatively small European people and to be honest nobody cares much about either of us.
Neither do I accept that there hasnt been progress Kristian I resent the comment that Serbs have shut their ears (I have done my part in making sure this isnt true). Most Serbs do accept that their side comitted crimes as well. The mainstream argument these days (unless you see the minority, ultra radical types) doesnt deny that Serbs comitted crimes. It usually a relativisation argument heard in Serbia along the lines of 'yes we were bad but the other sides were just as bad'. That may not be enough but everybody knows that Serbs comitted crimes. There have been numerous war crimes tried in Serbian courts. Recently (disgrace that it took so long yes) police officers were arrested in connection of the shameful Batajnica Albanian bodies. Progress is there, slow that it may be.
The additional problem is that Serbs cant look at the issue as though its in the past as Kosovo Albanians now can because hundreds of thousands of Serbs remain ethnically cleansed and bitter. Hundreds of thousands is enough to influence any electorate and government. Let them return to their homes and they might moderate.
Just a small amount of understanding goes a long way. I may not agree with the politics of Serbian nationalism but let us not exaggerate it and at least make an attempt to understand the situation today. I should add that I also make the same attempt to understand Albanian, Croatian nationalism as well.
Recently there was a book published (in Albanian and Serbian) by a Kosovo Albanian journalist who lived in Belgrade for most of his life, including during the bombardment.
Cant wait to read that book in full.
anyc you could just as well take my silence as meaning that I was too busy to respond...
In any case the author of that book isnt anybody I've read and I dont know his view of history - he's entitled to his opinion but it doesnt prove that since ethnic awareness has existed that the Serbs have been on a mission to liquidate or erradicate Albanians.
If that is the case then why can Albanians go about their business in Serbia proper (as they should be allowed to be and trust me I am consistently among the first to object if they are not allowed to go about their business normally)
That kind of thing is unprovable because it didnt happen. Yes throughout history Serbs, like Albanians thought it was very important to be the majority in any area they believed belonged to them. So they would encourage that. This isnt so surprising when you look at history of the area.
Trotsky of course had his own political philosophy that he was deeply attatched to - so deeply attatched that I would argue such people's opinions must always be taken with a pinch of salt. His primary objective is to show that his philosophy is the best so he shapes facts to prove his thesis.
That isnt to say that there hasnt been conflict / domination in Kosovo - of course there has. But the fact remains that there have been many more years of peace in Kosovo than there has been war. Why dont you want to talk about the many, many years of peace in Kosovo?
As far as I remember Rankovic's Kosovo plan didnt get off the drawing board. And we both know what happened to him.
And Milosevic from a nationalist Kosovo Albanian perspective was a positive. Do you think that his arrival on the political scene helped or pushed back the Kosovo Albanian cause?
You are citing instances of conflict / domination throughout history between Serbs and Albanians. At least some of that isnt in question.
My contention is that most Serbs have never even met an Albanian much less have an obsession with Albanians. Yes that can be a bad thing because people are easier to manipulate when you create a bogey like figure of somebody you've never met. On the other hand a bogey figure you have met or seen (Serbs in Kosovo seen by Albanians) being labled evil incarnate or war criminals is much more likely to be a target of obsession or worse.
You have to understand that to moderate Serbs Albanians (and even Kosovo) arent that important. Far more important is trying to make a living and to improve ones life.
I only read one extract from that Kosovo Albanian journalist's book who lived in Belgrade for years and during the bombardment but I suspect that he will be honest about Serbian attitudes towards Albanians. If you really want to know what these contemporary views are (and not from hundreds of years ago) then buy that book.
But like I say I havent read the book yet and hope he provides a balanced picture...
Kristian sorry cant reply today, I have a football match to watch. Hope the players wont disgrace themselves this time.
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