By Matthew Robinson
PRISTINA, Serbia and Montenegro (Reuters) - The majority Albanian province of Kosovo can win independence from Serbia in 2006 but it will be conditioned by an "international supervision" proviso, diplomats and analysts say.
While Serbia insists Kosovo can only have autonomy, the West will steer talks due to begin later this year toward a form of "conditional independence", they say. Quite possibly it would be conditioned on accepting a European Union monitoring mission.
"Conditional independence is the central consensus in the international community," said a senior European diplomat. "There's an idea what the outcome will be, but … no blueprint."
Full sovereignty might be offered when democratic standards were achieved and only as Serbia and the states of the western Balkans join the EU over the course of the next decade.
The United Nations took control of Kosovo in 1999 after NATO bombing drove out Serb forces accused of killing 10,000 Albanians in their 1998-99 war with separatist rebels.
Six years later, with the 90 percent ethnic Albanian majority clamoring for independence, the major Western powers which intervened in 1999 say U.N.-protectorate status is no longer sustainable. They want a solution in 2006.
Serbs see Kosovo as their Jerusalem, the cradle of a thousand years of Orthodox Christianity. No Serbian leader has dared to admit it may soon be lost.
But Western governments believe Serbia has already lost Kosovo. The problem is getting Serbs to face up to reality.
"Reintegrating Kosovo into Serbia and Montenegro will not win the Albanians' consent. It could only be achieved and sustained by the use of force, which is why it will not happen," says Judy Batt of the Institute for Security Studies in Paris.
Faced with 1.9 million hostile Albanians, Serbia could not hope to govern Kosovo again, and cannot afford it, she adds.
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4 comments:
Just in case you failed to read this, here is another chance:
Western governments believe Serbia has already lost Kosovo. The problem is getting Serbs to face up to reality.
I repeat: Western governments believe Serbia has already lost Kosovo. The problem is getting Serbs to face up to reality.
Goodbye Serbia! Hello Independence!
[quote]Serbs see Kosovo as their Jerusalem, the cradle of a thousand years of Orthodox Christianity. No Serbian leader has dared to admit it may soon be lost.[unquote]
Did you know that an Albanian Roman Catholic Church was brutaly converted to Serbian Orthodox Church near Peja/Pec and Serbs refer to it as cradle of Orthodox Christianity. Enough with it! We want our Catholic cradle back!
Lame reporting from the senior correspondents. Even Steven Colbert does a better job.
"Security for the minority? Near Prizren Shiptar terrorists kill poor Turk:
Ethnic Turk Murdered in Kosovo
October 12, 2005 -- An unknown assailant in a Kosovo town of Prizren has mortally attacked Ibish Chakali, an ethnic Turk and an attorney who was a member of the presidency of the Turkish Democratic Party.
Kosovo police confirmed the attack.
"Chakali was found wounded by police in the settlement of Ortokol in Prizren. He was taken to hospital where he died of his wounds," said Kosovo Police Service spokesman Bujar Xhurxhiali.
Police says that Chikali was targeted by shots from a moving vehicle.
Murder of a high ranking ethnic Turk comes one day after Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul visited Kosovo where he also inspected Turkish contingent of soldiers taking part in peacekeeping under NATO command. Gul also visited a Turkish village of Mamush located near town of Prizren where the murder occurred.
Turkish Democratic Party President Mahir Jagdjilar said that he hoped that the motive for the murder was neither political nor ethnic. He did not specify whether this was an assassination attempt.
Kosovo is a UN administered province of Serbia where the majority Albanians seek independence and have alluded that they are ready to use violence to get it. Recent UN report has criticized Kosovo Albanian government for lack of protection for ethnic minorities that live in the province.
October 12, 2005 04:22 PM (08:22 GMT)
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