Monday, May 15, 2006

Montenegro prepares for secession

Nicholas Wood

With days to go before a referendum that will determine the future of the tiny Balkan republic of Montenegro, Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic declared Monday that separation from Serbia was "unstoppable."
For almost nine years, Djukanovic, the Balkans' longest-serving leader, has promised to withdraw Montenegro from its federal union with Serbia, leaving Belgrade without a partner in what remains of the former Yugoslavia.
On Sunday, Montenegro's 440,000 voters will be given the first opportunity to express their views and polls have suggested a small majority favor separation. Under terms negotiated by the European Union, Djukanovic and his supporters need to obtain at least 55 percent of the vote to secede, so a bare majority will not be enough.
Djukanovic said in an interview Monday that Montengro's ties with Serbia were doomed even if he and his supporters failed to get 55 percent of the vote. If the vote to secede gets any kind of majority, he said he would have little choice but to distance Montenegro further from Serbia. "Our position would be that a democratic majority has delegitimized the existing union."
How Montenegro deals with its relationship with Serbia is seen as crucial to the stability of the region, which has yet to overcome the conflicts of the 1990s that killed 200,000 people. Diplomats worry that any attempt by Montenegro to declare independence unilaterally could provoke the region's Serbian minority, about 30 percent of Montenegro's population of 650,000.
The European Union's chief envoy to the region, Miroslav Lajcak, has made it clear that both Serbia and Montenegro would be expected to retain their ties and to negotiate for membership in the EU together were the yes vote to fall short of the required 55 percent.
Speaking last week to an economic forum in Belgrade, Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica of Serbia said the federation would remain intact as long the 55 percent threshold was not reached. "The European Union clearly said there is no gray area and that any result below 55 percent absolutely means that the joint state is preserved, by the will of the people," he said, Reuters reported.
Djukanovic said his government would not take any action unilaterally if it failed to meet the EU's requirements, but he also said the Constitution uniting Serbia and Montenegro would have to be changed if a majority favored independence. "It is clear we would have to embark on new negotiations with Serbia," he said.
But he added: "It is clear that any agreement we might make would be just an interim agreement toward final independence. I think this process is unstoppable. I compared this a few days ago to a river that is so strong that it cannot dry up."
The federation between Serbia and Montenegro is limited. They share control of an army and a diplomatic service. But both have separate customs and border police services, as well as separate republican governments.
For several years the European Union has resisted Montenegro's moves to break away from Serbia, worrying that such a move could destabilize the rest of the Balkans - most notably Kosovo, where ethnic Albanians also are demanding independence from Serbia.
In 2003, the European Union's foreign policy envoy, Javier Solana, negotiated a new Constitution between the two states and said a referendum should be permitted after three years.
Now that negotiations on the future of Kosovo are under way that could lead to its separation from Serbia, some diplomats say it is much harder to argue that Montenegro should not be granted independence.

4 comments:

Bg anon said...

Well as a concept I am against so called 'Balkanisation'. Or more precisely the creation of yet more and more, yet smaller and smaller, yet more nationalism, yet more national hero's, yet more changing of street names, yet another new currency, yet another flag, yet more 'national identity', yet more or new national anthems, yet more artificial divisions between mankind ....and yet the same political leaders.

But having said that I respect the right of the majority to decide.

Kristian the difference on either side is that what some Serbs did lies in the past and what some Albanians are doing is happening today.

So, I cant concur with your emphasis of only making comments to haul up Serbian participants here. If the Albanian participants were being more open about what is going on in Kosovo today I might understand more but that isnt the case.

And, yes this is coming from somebody who has had a fair number of arguments with Serbs in the 1990'a.

Kristian the assumption of many Albanians is to use the word Serbian for anything negative, even after its been made clear that the 'bad guy' is Montenegrian or Croatian (ie Frenki Simatovic) and many others.

nyoutlawyer has said on many occasions that he is montenegrian.

Bg anon said...

I thought this might be use for this topic:


IFIMES: 51.7 per cent support independence | 11:54 May 16 | Beta

LJUBLJANA -- According to a survey conducted by IFIMES, 51.7 per cent of Montenegrin voters will vote for independence.

The survey reports that 44 per cent of Montenegrins would vote against independence and that 87 per cent of registered voters intend to participate in the elections.

This result of 51.7 per cent however, would bring the success of the referendum into question, since 55 per cent of participating voters must support the referendum in order for it to pass.

The research done by IFIMES over the phone with 1,000 voters, shows that results could vary if tricks and illegal tactics are used during the voting process by either side. IFIMES claims that both political sides have prepared falsified voter lists and are both preparing various supporters to participate in illegal activities in order to influence the outcome of the vote.

In addition, a great “import” of Montenegrin citizens is scheduled to take place. Montenegrin citizens living in the Diaspora are expected to participate in large numbers and Montenegrins living in Serbia will have free bus transportation to Montenegro in order to take care of their voting duties.

All these activities could have great effects on the results of the referendum because there are only about 480,000 registered voters living in Montenegro, IFIMES stated.

Bg anon said...

Its quite funny seeing the tactics both sides are employing on this issue.

The first shot was fired by Serbian raliways who are providing free transport to Montenegrians who want to vote. Their counterparts in Montenegro responded by saying they will charge all those travelling to Mg on the border to continue their journeys.

Then Montenegro Airlines (batting for Milo Djukanovic) announced it was suspending flights during the referendum 'for technical reasons'.

JAT (supporting the state union) then responded by saying if necessary they will lay on extra flights during the referendum.

Watching this from Belgrade would be quite amusing if it were not so tragic. I look at Milo and think crook, guy who supported the bombardment of Dubrovnik, former close friend of Milosevic. Then I look at that Bulatovic and think, SPS loyalist, Milosevic etc.

The only exception is probably the most popular Mg today Medojevic. But he stands of accused as being too close to the internationals and NGO's. But he supports the state union.

With the exception of Medojevic neither side has much credibility.

I think that Serbia should have a referedum on whether it should remain in the state union. I dont see why men such as the above should decide what kind of country Im living in.

Isnt it about time that Serbians took matters into their own hands?

Bg anon said...

Kristian

I think differences between races are largely irrlevant so in reality dont think that 2 slavs might be any closer than a Chinese and an African.

I dont buy into national theory because I know the meaning of friendship and this transcends ethnic boundaries.

I have to say that this talk that Albanians (or Croats or Serbs, or slovenes) were repressed by the Communists is propoganda. This rewriting of history, now not only to claim that the Serbs were always the bad guys but that Yugoslavia was also too an evil entity designed to keep the Albanians down is pure rubbish.

Why is it rubbish? Because we were all repressed by the Communists - unless we were members of the communist party within our Republic or region, in which case we got particularly rich. We also all benefitted from SFRJ. But its become politically incorrect to say that so now its better to refer to the usual tired ethnic argument - 'Our .... was repressed by Yugoslavia'. And quite often the people who say this today were Communists and benefitted most from Yugoslavia!

As for Serbian leaders such as the Montenegrian Milosevic, the Croat Stanisic or the Hungarian Kertes or Croatian 'Frenkis boys' Simatovic. This is just a handfull - I can give you a much more extensive list of names you have heard of in senior positions who were not Serbs. Those giving orders were not mostly always Serbs. This is ignorance on the part of those who dont know the subject. And to be quite frank I dont know what the point of talking about something if the people doing the talking havent researched the topic.

But its a moot point really that doesnt prove so much. I just dont like generalising, innacuracy and stupidity.

But your point about Kosovo today and small scale incidents is the tip of the iceberg.

Dont you find the fact that non Albanians dont feel free to move about Kosovo offensive?

Dont you find it offensive that I cant get Mitrovica (for example, but please any Albanian help me out here) to condemn the setting on fire and destruction of the Roma Mahala in Mitrovica - the largest gypsy settlement in Europe.

Dont you think its wrong that those non Albanians who have been ethnically cleansed dont feel safe to return?

Dont you wonder why they think its not safe when you read comments here and other places about how those who dont return are war criminals and those that do are suspected of being war criminals - on account of their ethnic group?

I said it some weeks back that its easy for me to judge for the safety of Belgrade. Of course it is but I would hope that somebody would let me know and point it out to me if I started to support ethnic cleansing, if I became racist, if I taught my children that it was ok to throw stones at certain ethnic groups.

Perhaps in another part of this blog you saw me trying to get Guglji and Ivan to leave Mitrovica alone when they were calling him names? OK they wouldnt listen and Mitrovica decided he wanted to paint me as a bad guy too (I am in his eyes an evil Serb after all).

Point is this its best to keep your own house in order so at least Im making an effort and being consistent. I truly hope that one or two more Albanians can do the same and make some of the others see sense. Im not talking about the abuse on this point but about the exaggerations and innacuracies.

I see as Im about to post this you have a post from Ivan. You see variety of opinion in the 'Serb' camp.